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Vision 2050: The role of education in economic growth
President Samia Suluhu Hassan speaks to St. Mary's Secondary School in Tabora on October 18, 2023. PHOTO | STATE HOUSE
What you need to know:
- However, in Tanzania, we have been approaching education in the politically correct but strategically incorrect way. While we have successfully expanded access to education, this expansion has mostly occurred at the lower levels, where the return on investment is lower compared to post-primary education.
In our ambitious Vision 2050 plan for Tanzania, we’ve projected a future where the nation’s GDP reaches an astounding $2.5 trillion. This vision stands in stark contrast to conservative estimates given by institutions such as the World Bank. The question is, do we accept conventional predictions, or do we forge a path towards extraordinary prosperity? If we are to choose the journey toward transformative growth, then education becomes a crucial element.
Education is the cornerstone of economic development. According to Unesco, every $1 spent on education can generate as much as $15 in economic growth. A study that modelled the impact of educational attainment in fifty countries found that an additional year of schooling can increase a person’s earnings by 10 percent and boost average GDP by 0.37 percent annually. These statistics underscore the transformative power of education on both individual and national levels.
Education drives economic growth in two fundamental ways. First, it enhances national competitiveness and productivity by equipping individuals with the skills needed to thrive in the global economy. A well-educated workforce is more innovative, efficient, and adaptable, boosting national productivity. Second, educational institutions act as catalysts for regional development and economic hubs. Universities attract students, faculty, and staff, creating demand for housing, goods, and services, stimulating local economies, and fostering innovation through research.
However, in Tanzania, we have been approaching education in the politically correct but strategically incorrect way. While we have successfully expanded access to education, this expansion has mostly occurred at the lower levels, where the return on investment is lower compared to post-primary education. Moreover, although higher education yields higher returns, our funding and priorities haven’t reflected that. Finally, quality, particularly at higher levels, has often fallen victim to quantity.
As a solution to the quality issue, I have long advocated for the Elite Education model. Given our current resources, raising the standards of 25,000 schools to a meaningful level is unrealistic. Elite education addresses this question in a focused and practical manner. The impact of this model can be substantial within just five years.
That said, tertiary education presents an enormous but untapped opportunity. Universities serve as economic hubs for their surrounding areas. Normally, an institution with 1,000 students would employ approximately 100 academic staff and 100 administrative staff.
These 200 staff members, along with their families and students, create a community that requires food, housing, clothes, medical, and various services. This influx of people and their needs generates money, stimulates innovation, and fosters growth. This is what UDOM has done to Dodoma.
In the United Kingdom, higher education contributes £130 billion annually to GDP and supports 750,000 jobs. Of these jobs, half are provided by businesses that support universities. With 680,000 overseas students, the UK’s higher education system is a significant economic driver. Tanzania, strategically located and surrounded by eight countries, has the potential to serve as a regional centre for higher education, attracting students from across the continent if it can raise its standards.
Despite this potential, many regions in Tanzania lack degree-offering institutions. With a population of 69 million, Tanzania has only 49 universities. Comparatively, Nigeria has 274 universities for a population of 229 million, Poland has 408 universities for 40 million people, and Tunisia has 66 universities for 12.5 million people. Even our neighbours, Kenya and Rwanda, boast higher numbers of universities relative to their populations. Of all these nations, Tanzania has the lowest number of universities per million people (0.71).
To address this gap, I have argued that every region in Tanzania needs a university, and preferably, multiple institutions. Matching Rwanda’s ratio of two universities per million people would increase Tanzania’s number of universities from 49 to 150. Rather than merely expanding existing campuses like UDSM, we should establish new regional institutions. Some of us have lived around institutions such as UDSM, Institute of Social Works, Institute of Accountancy Arusha, etc. and have seen the transformative growth those institutions have spurred in their communities over the years. Therefore, I am moving for the establishment of the University of Tabora, the University of Manyara, the University of Ruvuma, and so on.
By investing in regional universities, we can decentralise higher education, making it accessible to more people and stimulating local economies. This approach can help us achieve the ambitious goal of 10 percent annual GDP growth, capitalising on the latent development potential within Tanzania.
That said, there is usually a time lag between investing in education and reaping its economic benefits. This delay suggests that action to improve higher education needs to be taken immediately to allow time for its effects to manifest by the 2030s and 2040s.
For Vision 2050 to succeed, Tanzania must overhaul its educational strategy, prioritising quality and higher education to unlock the full potential of its youth and drive sustained economic growth. The time to act is now, and the benefits will be reaped by generations to come.
