What killing of chief means for Abyei’s fragile peace

The chilling killing of the chief of the Dinka Ng’ok tribe, Kuol Deng Kuol, in Abyei recently by Arab Misseriya militiamen could portend further instability in the flashpoint region.

The last time heavy fighting broke out in the contested Abyei was in May 2011, when Sudan army tanks rolled into the area, and with air support, seized police posts, killed civilians and looted property.
Whole villages were razed and more than 110,000 displaced to South Sudan in the fighting, according to United Nations estimates.

The fertile, oil-rich Abyei region straddles the border between Sudan and South Sudan, and has been a scene of deadly clashes between their troops since a peace deal was signed in 2005, ending more than two decades of civil war.

The tribal militiamen have asked a convoy of UN peacekeepers to hand over the Dinka chief and his associates.

A fire-fight broke out after several hours of failed negotiations, leading to the death of the chief and several others.

Until it was transferred to Southern Kordofan in 1905, Abyei was part of South Sudan. A referendum to determine the status of the region flopped in January 2011, after Juba and Khartoum failed to agree on who was an eligible voter.

The Misseriya, an Arad nomadic tribe that grazes its cattle in Abyei in the dry season, has been the centre of the dispute. The Misseriya says its economic life has been linked to that of the Dinka Ngok; that they either remain together in Sudan, or join South Sudan together.

But Khartoum wants the Misseriya to take part in the plebiscite in the hope that they would sway any planned vote in favour of Sudan.

African Union mediators proposed the referendum to be held in October this year with the participation of only permanent residents. Sudan has rubbished the proposal.

But the recent attack has set a new course in Abyei. The irony is that the same Misseriya that claim to vote together with the Dinka Ngok have turned out to be killing the Ng’ok.

The fateful incident resembles the killing of former chief late Deng Majok, and later the infamous massacre of the Dinka Ng’ok by the Miseriya at Kiir River in 1965.

The area policemen, who were drawn from Sudan, played a key role at Babanus police post in the massacre.

The victims included the mother of Deng Alor Kuol, South Sudan’s minister of Cabinet Affairs.

The massacre eroded any little trust for co-existence the Dinka Ng’ok might have had in Sudanese authorities and the Misseriya.In the years that followed, the Dinka Ng’ok youths joined militia groups and started a resistance against the Khartoum government, well ahead of the 1983 civil war.

Now, it is tense in Abyei. The Dinka Ng’ok youths are demonstrating against Kuol’s killing. It seems that a new wave of resistance has been set in motion.

“It is going to be difficult to control the situation because, in our view, this was done by the Government of Sudan,” Deng Alor said. It is worth noting that the incident came weeks after South Sudan President Salva Kiir and Sudan’s Omar al-Bashir agreed to cordial relations in Juba.

So far, oil is flowing, crossing points have opened along the undefined borders, the central banks are starting contacts and both have cleared each other’s name of supporting rebels.

You could think there is a better chance than ever before, for the two countries to bend the arc in history towards better relationship.

But the Abyei dispute has lasted over several decades, starting from 1972 when a similar vote was derailed following oil discovery in the area, through the 2005 Abyei Boundaries Commission, to the 2009 ruling of The Hague-based court, and now to the African Union mediation.

Therefore, while both sides could mount enough courage to compromise on other issues, Abyei has remained a sticking point of dispute.

A new international effort is needed to end bloodshed in Abyei and keep the plank in balance, or else the loss of trust in diplomatic efforts could push the Ng’ok to the edge and tip over the shaky calm.
Mr Amos filed this analysis for NMG from Juba