Why Tanzania is NOT sleepwalking into global irrelevance – 1

By Bravious Kahyoza

It is easy to accuse a nation of drifting. “Sleepwalking into irrelevance” is a phrase that begs for attention, daring readers to nod along as if decline were a simple equation. Charles Makakala’s piece does exactly that, marshalling statistics and rankings to argue that Tanzania has been outpaced by Kenya, Rwanda, Vietnam, and others. It looks convincing on the surface, but only if one treats numbers as gospel and ignores the deeper story.

Numbers, after all, don’t always lie, but they rarely tell the whole truth. They can be plucked out of context, framed selectively, and serve as evidence of failure. But Tanzania, when examined through the lenses of history, diplomacy, and lived experience, presents a more complicated picture—one that reveals strength where Makakala insists there is decline.

Take the familiar charge that Tanzania is losing its competitive edge. Yes, foreign direct investment as a share of GDP—around 2.2 percent in 2023—trails Rwanda’s 7.4 percent and Vietnam’s 15 percent.

Those numbers sound damning until you realise Rwanda’s economy is only a fraction of Tanzania’s. Tanzania, by contrast, quietly attracted nearly $1.2 billion in FDI, a larger absolute figure than Rwanda’s.

Vietnam’s comparison is equally misleading. It sits at the heart of Asian supply chains, the beneficiary of decades of industrial planning that Tanzania could never simply replicate.

Tanzania is charting its own course—one rooted in sovereignty, stability, and resource stewardship rather than chasing quick manufacturing booms. To dismiss this as irrelevant is to miss the point of what kind of relevance Tanzania is building.

The Human Capital Index is another favourite weapon. Tanzania’s children, we are told, will reach only 40 percent of their potential productivity, compared to Vietnam’s 69 percent. The gap is undeniable, but what gets buried is the trajectory.

Tanzania’s literacy rate has risen steadily, reaching nearly 80 percent in 2022. School fees were abolished, classrooms expanded, and today the country boasts one of the largest student populations in East Africa.

Of course, quality remains an issue. But relevance is not forged by perfection; it is forged by persistence. Nations matter because they pull millions into schools who would otherwise be left behind, then steadily improve over time.

I have walked through rural Tanzanian classrooms filled with children whose parents never saw a chalkboard, and it is impossible to call that irrelevant. That is the quiet power of progress.

Critics also deride Tanzania’s logistics, citing its Logistics Performance Index ranking in the 120s. Kenya, they note, does better. But such comparisons forget geography. Tanzania is the gateway to six landlocked countries. Its ports handle more than 90 percent of Zambia’s trade, a third of Rwanda’s, and substantial volumes for Malawi, Burundi, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Dar es Salaam Port alone processed 17 million tonnes of cargo in 2023, up from 10 million just a decade earlier. That is not the mark of irrelevance—it is the mark of indispensability. Neighbours rely on Tanzanian infrastructure not because it is flawless but because it is the region’s lifeline.

Anyone who has stood at Tunduma and watched convoys of trucks streaming across borders knows that relevance is measured not only in indexes but in the relentless hum of commerce.

Makakala’s claim that Tanzania lags in high-tech exports is also true on paper. Less than one percent of its trade comes from such products, while Vietnam boasts double digits. But Tanzania’s comparative advantage is different. It is Africa’s fourth-largest gold producer, exporting $2.7 billion in 2022. It sits on 57 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, one of the world’s largest reserves, with projects underway that could vault it into the top tier of LNG exporters by the 2030s.

This resource wealth does not make Tanzania a tech hub, but it does command international respect. In an era where energy security is reshaping alliances, Tanzania’s relevance is written in contracts and pipelines. European, American, and Asian investors know it. They are not circling a country that doesn’t matter.

Dr Bravious Kahyoza is an economist and international affairs analyst