Analysts weigh in on Samia’s 4Rs amid police and Chadema clash

When she spoke during fireside chat with Mwananchi Communications Limited managing director Bakari Machumu at The Citizen Rising Woman Gala held on International Women’s Day in Dar es Salaam in March, this year, President Hassan said the 4Rs were adopted as an appropriate unification approach following mounting calls from various stakeholders, including opposition parties, civil society organisations and development partners, among others.

“I had to think of reconciliation, whose application has enabled the government to meet and talk with political stakeholders and opposition political parties.

It has enabled us to form a committee to evaluate the country’s political situation,” she said.

By Resilience, she said, the aim was to introduce a culture of tolerating each other whenever there are differences, engaging in dialogue, and coming up with a way forward.

As for Reform, she said, the aim was to address the need for change to meet intended goals and agreements.

The 4Rs have led to different changes, including the return of Chadema Vice Chairman Tundu Lissu to the country from Belgium, where he had been living in exile after surviving an assassination attempt during the Magufuli reign in September 2017.

Political rallies were once again allowed in Tanzania after years of being outlawed.

The police force started escorting members of opposition parties who demonstrated against any of the issues at hand, contrary to the past situation where any attempt to demonstrate, let alone, hold a public or private political gathering was almost outlawed.

However, the 4Rs Philosophy has been put to a question during the past few days when the police force cancelled a planned celebration by Chadema’s youth wing, commonly known in its Kiswahili acronym as Bavicha.

The first school of thought believes the police force had no option but to ensure that the laws and regulations governing Tanzania are respected by all and that the 4Rs belong to everyone and must be adhered to by all parties.

The other group of thought is one that believes that in line with the 4Rs, the police force should have simply forgiven the badmouthing of some Bavicha leaders and allow the party to continue with its planned youth event.

Those in support of cancellation of the planned Chadema youths’ event point to the fact that the announcement by Bavicha’s National Publicity Secretary Twaha Mwaipaya on the planned August 12, 2024 event was provocative.

Scheduled for August 12, 2024, in Mbeya City, this gathering was intended to mark International Youth Day and feature top Chadema leaders, including National Chairman Freeman Mbowe.

Mwaipaya’s call for a large-scale assembly of Tanzanian youth was framed as a pivotal moment for the country’s political future, with rhetoric that suggested challenging the government’s authority.

Mwaipaya’s declaration, which included a provocative invitation for youth to gather and make resolutions, including being shown how their counterparts in Kenya came up to understand themselves, was perceived as an incitement to unrest.

His remarks drew significant attention and controversy, prompting a response from the Deputy Registrar of Political Parties, Sisty Nyahoza.

Nyahoza highlighted several legal violations associated with Mwaipaya’s statements, accusing him of potentially inciting violence and breaching provisions of the Political Parties Act and the Political Parties Code of Conduct.

Specifically, Nyahoza pointed to violations related to political activities in religious settings and the involvement of non-citizens in political events, further complicating the situation.

In response to the planned gathering, the Tanzanian Police Force intervened, issuing a ban on the event.

According to Police spokesperson, David Misime, the prohibition was specifically targeted at the Chadema-organized event in Mbeya City, which was ostensibly intended to celebrate International Youth Day.

The police emphasized that their actions were aimed at maintaining public order and adhering to national legal requirements.

On August 11, 2024, law enforcement officers arrested 375 Chadema members who were en route to the event, including top leaders of the party such as Chairman Freeman Mbowe, vice chairman for Tanzania mainland, Tundu Lissu, and Secretary-General, John Mnyika.

Additionally, the police seized several vehicles transporting attendees.

The subsequent arrests and vehicle seizures, along with heightened security measures in Mbeya and other regions, were framed as necessary steps to prevent potential disruptions.

Now, some analysts say the police had legitimate reasons for preventing Chadema's demonstrations due to inflammatory statements from the party's leaders, suggesting that Tanzania should experience turmoil similar to Kenya's recent political unrest, which has resulted in injuries to hundreds, loss of lives, property damage, and significant disruption to ordinary citizens' businesses and production activities.

Speaking with The Citizen a political analyst, Dr Onesmo Kyauke, commented on the 4Rs framework, stating that while the 4Rs are not inherently problematic, the issue arises when political parties treat them as having the same weight as national laws.

“When faced with issues like this, parties should seek a legal interpretation to determine whether their meetings or gatherings are permissible.

They should use this process to understand where they might have erred as a party, rather than assuming that the 4Rs alone can resolve legal matters,” he said.

Mr Kyauke who is also a law lecturer at the University of Dar es Salaam emphasized that the country should not operate based on a leader's philosophy or political will but rather adhere to national laws that clearly define these matters.

“The 4Rs have demonstrated the president's political will in certain areas, such as allowing Chadema to hold demonstrations, but we should not over-rely on these principles and forget the guiding laws that govern us,” he added.

A political science lecturer at University of Dodoma, Paul Loisulie noted that youth movements in various countries, including Kenya, have significantly impacted political landscapes, sometimes leading to the dissolution of cabinets.

“The statements made by Bavicha leaders indicated that their actions would likely pose challenges for the police.

Looking at the example of Kenyan youth (Gen-Z) and how they recently endangered Kenya's peace, it was clear that the police would intervene,” he said.

He added, “The situation in other countries that have faced similar issues has led to heightened police vigilance to prevent any signs of such events in Tanzania.”

He also mentioned that the 4Rs remain largely a personal philosophy of the president and are not yet fully understood or embraced within his party (CCM) or even by opposition parties in the country.

“The 4Rs are still largely aspirational. They suggest a need for inclusivity, rather than leaving their implementation to a single individual or party.

Unfortunately, people, political parties, and various institutions have discussed them as if they are solely the responsibility of one side, whereas the 4Rs imply a two-sided approach.

If properly understood and applied, they could lead to significant national changes,” he said.

For his part, a political science lecturer at the University of Dar es Salaam, Dr Richard Mbunda, pointed out that the issue at hand is not a weakness of the 4Rs but rather poor communication between the police and Chadema regarding the matter.

“This situation has tarnished our international reputation by making it appear that our country still lacks democracy,” he said.

Dr Mbunda explained that the 4Rs have shown flaws in this situation due to the extended time taken to react, considering that more than 570 leaders and members were reportedly detained.

“The president should have addressed the release of these leaders and members to demonstrate the strength of the reconciliation politics promoted by the 4Rs,” said a political science and public administration professor at the University of Zanzibar (Suza), Ali Makame Ussi.

He emphasized that the 4Rs are based on humanitarian and ethical principles but do not replace the fundamental legal frameworks of the country.

“Reconciliation philosophies do not alter or halt other legal procedures in the country.

We still struggle to distinguish this philosophy from the nation’s regulations, rules, and laws, which are crucial to understand,” he said.

He added that the current unrest among youth globally is a trend unrelated to the weaknesses of the 4Rs.

“It is important to understand that this unrest is not a reflection of the shortcomings of the 4Rs,” he said.

Handed the 4Rs way

There is also a view that while prior to the adoption of the 4Rs philosophy, those who attempted to hold an outlawed meeting would have been arrested and sued, the situation was somewhat different this time around as no court case has been filed against any opposition leader.

“What we used to see in previously was that the police could have continued detaining Chadema leaders and members and pursuing incitement charges against them.

But this time around, they opted to release them after ensuring the prevention of unrest and maintaining peace.

This approach aligns with President Hassan’s 4Rs philosophy,” said a source privy to security issues.

He said President Hassan’s 4R philosophy does not endorse political disorder or violence aimed at disrupting a nation known for its peace and stability in Africa and globally.