How Tanzania’s fragmented opposition will take on CCM

According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Chadema failed to sign the 2025 Election Code of Ethics, a legal prerequisite for participation.

Chadema chairman Tundu Lissu, who was widely expected to run again after securing 1.9 million votes (13 percent) in the 2020 election, now faces treason charges.

In response, Chadema has launched a protest campaign under the slogan “No Reforms, No Elections,” rejecting the legitimacy of the entire electoral process unless significant democratic reforms are introduced.

In contrast, another prominent opposition party ACT-Wazalendo has confirmed it will contest the 2025 elections, even as it remains deeply critical of the current electoral framework.

Former party leader Zitto Kabwe, speaking at a public rally in Tabora on July 2, invoked the spirit of Maji Maji resistance and Tanu’s 1958 decision to participate in colonial elections as inspiration for ACT’s decision to stay in the race.

“We have chosen to participate in the 2025 election—not because we trust the electoral commission, but because we love Tanzania and believe in the power of your vote,”Mr Zitto was quoted in the party statement.

“Let us participate, vote, and remove CCM!” told the public, as the party slogan now chants “Linda kura yako, linda maisha yako” (Protect your vote, protect your life)

ACT received only 81,129 votes (0.55 percent) in 2020 under Bernard Membe—a former CCM member.

A sea of small parties, but few strong contenders

Beyond ACT and Chadema, over a dozen smaller parties have nominated presidential candidates. However, most of these parties performed poorly in 2020 and acknowledged their limited chances in 2025.

The CCM candidate President Samia Suluhu Hassan will face Mr Yustus Rwamugira, who is contesting under the Tanzania Labour Party (TLP). He has already been endorsed by his party to run in the October 2025 general elections.

However, TLP is not seen as a serious threat to CCM given its past performance. In the 2020 election, TLP did not field a presidential candidate and instead supported CCM's late President John Magufuli.
  In addition to Rwamugira, President Samia Suluhu Hassan will face Mr Hassan Doyo, who has been nominated by NLD to carry its presidential flag. Despite the five years since the last election, historically, NLD has not been a formidable opponent to CCM.

In 2020, like TLP, NLD had no presidential candidate and backed Magufuli.

Another challenger is Mr Wilson Elias, representing ADC. ADC performed poorly in 2020, garnering only 7,627 votes (0.05 percent) under its then-candidate Ms Queen Sendiga, who now serves as Regional Commissioner for Manyara.

Speaking to sister paper Mwananchi, ADC party chairman Shaban Itutu believes his party has a real chance due to the quality of their candidate and a people-centred manifesto.

“We are prepared to challenge the ruling party, which has failed to bring development despite many years in power. We believe 2025 will be a turning point,” he said.

He rejected the idea that ADC is only in the race to escort CCM, saying Tanzanians are experiencing hardship and need a serious party that will offer real solutions.

While acknowledging the challenging political climate, Mr Itutu expressed confidence in the people’s ability to choose wisely at the ballot.

Ada-Tadea’s candidate, Mr John Shibuda, received 33,086 votes (0.22 percent), leaving the party outside the circle of serious contenders.

Mr Kunje Ngombale-Mwiru is also running against President Samia under the Farmers' Party (AAFP). In 2020, AAFP ranked second-last among the parties with the fewest votes, collecting only 4,635 votes (0.03 percent) under Seif Maalim Seif.
  Mr Rashidi Rai, Secretary-General of the Farmers’ Party (AAFP), said that for his party, running a presidential candidate is more about fulfilling a constitutional requirement than seriously competing for power.

He admitted that their focus is mainly on council and parliamentary races.

“We’ll field a presidential candidate, and while politically it’s correct to say we aim to win, in reality, we lack the financial capacity and public appeal to challenge dominant parties,”Mr Rai explained.

He added, “Our opponents are better funded and more visible.”

From NCCR Mageuzi, Haji Khamisi has been endorsed to run for the presidency, awaiting official clearance from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). In 2020, the party was represented by Maganja Kulwa, who received 19,969 votes (0.13 percent).

Mr Hassan Almas, now the Secretary-General of NRA, has been endorsed to contest against the ruling party’s candidate. NRA ranked fourth in total votes in 2020, with its then-candidate Mahona Lucas earning 80,787 votes (0.54 percent) out of over 14.8 million votes cast.

Another contender is Mr Majaliwa Kyara, who has been nominated by SAU. In 2020, SAU’s presidential candidate secured 14,922 votes (0.1 percent).

Mr David Mwaijolele of CCK is also in the race, pending INEC’s official approval. Representing UMD, Mwajuma Mirambo is also contesting. In 2020, UMD placed last, with their candidate Mazrui Mohamed securing only 3,721 votes (0.03 percent).

Demokrasia Makini has endorsed Coaster Kibonde for the presidency. The party's previous candidate, Cecilia Mmanga, received 14,556 votes (0.10 percent) in the 2020 election.

Twalib Kadege of UPDP is running for president for a second time. In 2020, he garnered just 6,194 votes (0.04 percent).

Cracks within CCM

While President Samia Suluhu Hassan prepares to seek her first full mandate under Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) in 2025, all is not calm within the ruling party..

The most striking signal came on July 13, 2025, when Tanzania’s Ambassador to Cuba, Humphrey Polepole, publicly resigned from his diplomatic post. A longtime CCM insider, former MP, and influential Ideology and Publicity Secretary, Polepole’s departure reverberated beyond the corridors of diplomacy. In a letter addressed to President Samia and shared widely on social media, he cited “deep reflection” and “personal convictions” as the basis for his resignation—hinting at dissatisfaction with the country’s leadership direction.

Adding to the internal tension is the ongoing saga of Kawe MP and CCM cleric Bishop Josephat Gwajima, who has openly criticised the electoral process and previously spoke out against alleged abductions and disappearances—a red line in the political space. His controversial remarks have placed him at odds with party leadership, and his church has since been deregistered, sparking a legal battle currently in court.

President Hassan's factor

This will be President Hassan’s first election as a direct presidential candidate, after assuming office in 2021 following the sudden passing of President John Magufuli.

Since then, she has carved out a reputation as a reformer, softening Magufuli-era restrictions on the media and opposition, engaging the international community, and launching a bold economic transformation agenda known as Vision 2050—a roadmap to grow Tanzania into a $1 trillion economy by mid-century.

President Hassan's leadership has been credited with stabilising Tanzania’s international image, reviving foreign investment, and overseeing infrastructure expansion.

As October nears, the opposition is louder than ever—but more divided than it has been in recent history. With Chadema sidelined, ACT-Wazalendo carrying the protest torch into the ballot box, and a sea of micro-parties joining the race with little firepower, the real contest may not be who runs—but whether Tanzanians still believe in the power of their vote.