In the Isles, making every effort to tear unity apart?

Dar es Salaam. When speaking to Dar es Salaam elders recently, President John Magufuli distanced himself from the ongoing Zanzibar political impasse.

He told elders that Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) had all the powers to decide on any issue related to suffrage in Zanzibar.

President Magufuli said categorically that those who had been suggesting that he intervene in the matter should clearly understand that he was not planning to do so.

He said: “I will remain silent on the Zanzibar election, ZEC has all powers in its hands, and it is an independent body like any other in the World,”

About a fortnight ago, the main opposition party in the isles – CUF -- told reporters that they were ready to resume talks with CCM over the Zanzibar political crisis under a condition that all election preparations were halted.

The CUF secretary general said his party would be ready to resume talks with the ruling party if ZEC, CCM itself and the government would, in the first place, stop preparations for the March 20 election rerun.

However, the challenging question remain to be ‘what will happen if the CUF will stick to its gun that it will not participate in the March 20 election rerun?

Some political analysts and politicians, who spoke to The Citizen, have different views on the matter.

University of Sokoine Professor Damian Gabagambi said going to the election rerun without the CUF would not bring about any good, much as there would be no mutual understanding between the two sides.

He said some CUF members felt CCM was dragging them and that they had no right to make opinions. International organisations supporting Tanzania and Zanzibar may withdraw their support, he added.

“I think the two sides were supposed to reach a consensus before the election rerun date was announced, going to the polls rerun without the CUF is a bad sign to both Zanzibar economic and political development,” Professor Gabagambi said.

He said the announcement of the election rerun date in the middle of the CUF and CCM talks meant nothing was going on between the two sides.

He added: “It is most likely that there will be a conflict between one family and another basing on their political ideology, those who belong to the CUF will feel oppressed and despised, while the CCM members and supporters will consider themselves superior enough to grab priority in everything,” he said.

Professor Gabagambi said going to the election rerun without the CUF would create tensions in the Isles.

University of Dar es Salaam lecturer Richard Mbunda said the CUF had already declared their stand that they would not participate in the election rerun.

However, Dr Mbunda said the situation might be tense after the polls, for no one knew exactly what the CUF was planning during and after the election rerun.

He warned that Zanzibar politics were unique and that wananchi had more voice compared to other countries.

Dr Mbunda said it would be better if the two sides continued with talks instead of going to the election rerun before a consensus was reached.

He said Mainland Tanzania also ought to participate in finding lasting solution for the Isles crisis, as Zanzibar was part of Tanzania.

Professor Abdallah Safari said, in turn, that there were rules, regulations and principles for any democratic election to take place and that it was disturbing to see CCM planning to go ahead with the election rerun alone in the Isles.

Over nine political parties have already announced that they would not participate in the March 20 election rerun.

“There are only two safe options here, one is to announce Seif Sharrif Hamad winner of the October 25 General Election and second is to continue with dialogue, but the talks must involve three parties, namely the CUF, CCM and a neutral side,” he explained.

Attributing the collapse of the former talks to lack of a third neutral party to mediate them, Prof Safari also warned that Zanzibar would be divided after the election rerun if ZEC decided to sideline the CUF.

Zanzibaris would live in fear, enmity and threats, something that would cause problems not only to the Isles, but to the whole country.

The CUF spokesman, Mr Ismail Jussa Ladhu, said Zanzibar would be torn into pieces after the election rerun.

“It’s obvious those who will participate in the election rerun and those who will not participate in it will not understand each other,” he said, adding:

“This isn’t a democratic election, but while authorities are applying excessive force to get a Zanzibar leader, they must understand that its impact will be very big,” Mr Jussa said.

He reiterated that CUF would never cast ballot for the second time, as they had already fulfilled their responsibility by electing the right leader for the Isles.

The CCM Ideology and Publicity secretary, Mr Nape Nnauye, argued, however, saying the CUF decision would not have any negative impact on Zanzibar, stressing that unity and peace would prevail in the Isles during and after the election rerun.

“When someone decides to stay aside, it is his own decision. He cannot stop others from moving forward,” he said.

Kigoma Urban MP, Mr Zitto Kabwe (ACT-Mzalendo), said the election rerun would not be free and fair unless there was a lasting solution for the crisis beforehand.

He also said Zanzibar needed someone sober and neutral to mediate talks between the CUF and CCM. “Then a team must be formed to amend the Constitution in a bid to form an independent electoral commission, this can be the lasting solution for the Zanzibar political crisis,” he suggested.

Ruaha University College (Ruco) Professor Gaudence Mpangala said should the CUF members boycott the election rerun, half of Zanzibaris will have not elected their president and other leaders.

This is despite the fact that even some CCM members might also not participate in the polls rerun as a result of the ongoing misunderstandings.

“The leader, who will be elected in the March 20 election rerun might not be accepted by the majority of wananchi in the Isles,” Prof Mpangala cautioned.

He also holds a view that the political crisis would intensify after the polls rerun. “The best option is to find a lasting solution for the political stalemate beforehand,” he suggested.