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Nchimbi’s nomination and impact on the 2030 presidential hopefuls
President Samia Suluhu Hassan congratulates Dr Emmanuel Nchimbi after appointing him as her running mate in the 2025 General Election. PHOTO | COURTESY
What you need to know:
- Despite his elevated status, Dr Nchimbi faces several hurdles. Chief among them, they say, is the perception that vice presidents are often sidelined in the succession race.
Dar es Salaam. Dr Emmanuel Nchimbi’s nomination as running mate for the presidency in Tanzania’s 2025 general election has not only solidified his standing within Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), but also sparked discussions about its potential ripple effects on the 2030 political landscape.
While this move demonstrates CCM’s strategic planning for continuity, it has raised questions about how his rise might influence the ambitions of other political heavyweights eyeing the presidency in 2030.
Dr Nchimbi’s extensive political career, which includes stints as minister of Home Affairs and minister for Defence and National Service, positions him as a key player within CCM.
His selection as President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s running mate reflects the party’s trust in his leadership and loyalty. However, political analysts suggest that his emergence could complicate the plans of CCM members who have long been positioning themselves for the top job.
CCM’s national congress endorsed Dr Nchimbi’s candidacy on January 19, 2025, to strengthen the party’s unity and enhance its appeal ahead of the 2025 general elections.
A senior party insider commented: “This choice reflects CCM’s confidence in Nchimbi’s ability to support President Samia’s agenda while maintaining party cohesion.”
By the CCM procedures, no party cadre has openly announced a desire to run for president in 2030.
Some of those who expressed interest in the presidency in 2015 include Mr January Makamba, Dr Mwigulu Nchemba, Dr Hamisi Kigwangalla, Mr Lazaro Nyalandu, Mr Luhaga Mpina, Mr Makongoro Nyerere, Dr Harrison Mwakyembe, Dr Asha-Rose Migiro, and Mr William Ngeleja.
Analysts say the elevation of Dr Nchimbi’s profile could present a new challenge to those seeking the presidency in 2030.
“His elevated profile means they’ll have to reassess their strategies if he (Nchimbi) has that goal in his mind,” said a political analyst, Mr Josephat Msangi. “He’s not just a running mate; he’s now seen as a significant contender for future leadership.”
Dr Nchimbi’s political philosophy, likened by some to the late Edward Lowassa’s results-driven approach, has earned him both praise and scrutiny.
“His focus on practical solutions and grassroots engagement resonates with many Tanzanians,” said another political pundit, Mr Amon Ngonyani of Mzumbe University. “This could make him a strong contender in 2030, especially if he proves himself as a capable deputy to President Samia.”
However, historian Ms Fatuma Mwalimu points out that vice presidents in Tanzania rarely ascend to the presidency under normal circumstances.
“Samia Suluhu Hassan’s rise was unique due to unforeseen events. For Nchimbi to break this pattern, he’ll need to overcome significant internal and external challenges,” she remarked.
The 2030 dynamics
The political ambitions of CCM’s prominent figures remain a factor towards the 2030 elections, especially after the party has already decided its frontline figures in the upcoming October polls this year.
As things stand, though they have not said they will contest in 2030, analysts look up to Mr Makamba and Dr Nchemba as key contenders.
Dr Nchimbi’s sudden rise could disrupt this equilibrium.
“Makamba and Nchemba have been building their networks for years,” said Msangi. “Nchimbi’s nomination and if he decides to test his fortune come 2030, means they’ll face a new competitor who has the advantage of being in the public eye and aligned with CCM’s current leadership.”
Yet, some believe that Nchimbi’s rise does not necessarily spell doom for other hopefuls. “CCM’s history shows that the party has mechanisms to balance competing ambitions,” said Ms Mwalimu. “It’s too early to predict whether Nchimbi’s elevation will overshadow others.”
Dr Nchimbi’s style has drawn comparisons to Edward Lowassa, a former CCM stalwart known for his pragmatic and developmental focus. This similarity has fuelled speculation about his long-term political aspirations.
“Nchimbi’s ability to connect with the grassroots and prioritise results mirrors Lowassa’s strategy,” noted Mr Ngonyani. “But whether he can build the same level of national appeal remains uncertain.”
Despite his elevated status, Dr Nchimbi faces several hurdles. Chief among them, they say, is the perception that vice presidents are often sidelined in the succession race.
“He needs to establish himself as more than just a deputy. Delivering tangible results during his tenure will be critical,” Mr Msangi emphasised.
Additionally, Dr Nchimbi must navigate the intricate dynamics within CCM. The ambitions of 2030 hopefuls could lead to internal rivalries, which the party will need to manage effectively to avoid fragmentation.
“Balancing loyalty to President Samia with his aspirations can be a delicate act,” she added.
The road to 2030
Dr Nchimbi’s nomination as running mate positions him as a significant figure in Tanzania’s political future. While his immediate focus will be on supporting President Hassan’s agenda, his actions and performance in the coming years could define his trajectory for 2030 and beyond.
“Nchimbi’s rise is both an opportunity and a challenge for CCM,” said Ngonyani. “He represents continuity and renewal, but he also introduces a new dynamic that could reshape the party’s succession plans unless he doesn’t want to go beyond the vice presidency if they win the 2025 elections.”
As Tanzania gears up for the 2025 elections, the spotlight will remain on Dr Nchimbi. However, the broader question of how his rise affects the ambitions of 2030 hopefuls adds an intriguing layer to the nation’s political narrative.
