Would Chadema avoid the fate of CUF, NCCR-Mageuzi?

The ongoing tensions within Chadema over Tundu Lissu’s decision to contest for the party chairmanship have raised important questions about the party’s future unity and the broader dynamics of Tanzanian opposition politics.

This development has ignited a wave of concern among party members and observers, who fear that the tensions could escalate into a deeper crisis, potentially splitting the party.

These fears are not without precedent, as Tanzanian major opposition parties such as NCCR-Mageuzi and the Civic United Front (CUF)—once formidable opposition forces—experienced internal strife, leading to leadership crises and fragmentation.

 Opposition disintegration in Tanzania

NCCR-Mageuzi and CUF’s internal strife during their peaks provide a cautionary tale for Chadema as it faces the threat of factionalism.

NCCR-Mageuzi, which once held significant promise as a voice for democratic change, faced a leadership crisis in the late 1990s resulting in infighting and defections.

The crisis pitted the then chairperson, the late Augustine Mrema and his secretary general, Mabere Marando.

The party’s inability to manage its internal conflicts diminished its influence, despite its historical role in challenging CCM.

Similarly, CUF’s division in the 2010s, triggered by power struggles between the late Seif Sharif Hamad and Prof Ibrahim Lipumba, significantly undermined its effectiveness.

CUF’s resulting fragmentation led most of its members to defect to the ACT-Wazalendo party.

TLP, too, and other smaller parties faced similar challenges.

A series of leadership disputes and an inability to effectively unite the party’s ranks resulted in its diminished influence.

The party, which had gained some traction after Mr Mrema joined its leadership in the early 2000s, saw its support base erode as internal conflicts became more pronounced.

These experiences highlight the fragility of opposition political parties that face significant challenges in maintaining unity amidst leadership struggles.

However, while CUF, NCCR-Mageuzi and TLP all experienced major internal fractures, none of them fully vanished from the political scene.

This history offers both a warning and a guide for Chadema, which has thus far demonstrated considerable organisational strength and a solid base of grassroots support.

Chadema’s unique position, leadership dynamics

Chadema, as Tanzania’s largest and most influential opposition political party, faces unique challenges and opportunities compared to its predecessors.

Founded in 1992, the party has steadily evolved into a formidable political force, particularly following the 2010 General Election.

During this pivotal moment, it significantly expanded its support base, securing 48 parliamentary seats, including special seats, and officially assuming the role of the main opposition party in Parliament.

This was a significant victory from the 11 MPs it had fielded in Parliament following the 2005 General Election.

Its support expanded further in 2015 when the party increased its parliamentary seats to 73, while its presidential candidate, the late Edward Lowassa, achieved a historic milestone by garnering 39.97 percent of the presidential vote.

This was the highest percentage ever attained by an opposition presidential candidate in Tanzania's electoral history.

Chadema as the main challenger to CCM

However strong it seems to be, the party is not immune to the internal conflicts that have plagued other opposition groups in Tanzania.

The debate over Lissu’s decision to run for the chairmanship is fuelled by the fact that he has emerged as a central figure in opposition politics in the country.

After having spent several years in exile after surviving an assassination attempt in 2017, he returned to contest the presidential election in 2020, raising his profile in the Tanzanian democratic dispensation.

His fearless outspokenness, believed to have triggered the 2017 assassination attempt against him, has only elevated him to a political pedestal that few opposition politicians can hope to reach.

Obviously, Lissu's supporters argue that his candidacy represents a democratic process and a healthy competition for leadership within the party.

They believe that Chadema, as the main opposition force in Tanzania, must embrace internal democracy, allowing for leadership contests that reflect the party's commitment to the principles of free and fair elections.

They continue arguing that by contesting for the chairmanship, Lissu seeks to strengthen the party’s leadership, which is vital in ensuring that Chadema remains a force for democratic change in the country.

On the other hand, Lissu's critics within the party warn that his bid could lead to unnecessary factionalism and undermine the unity that has kept Chadema strong for decades.

They argue that the party has faced enough internal challenges in recent years and cannot afford a divisive leadership contest at a time when it is crucial to maintain solidarity.

Chadema’s response

Analysts say Chadema’s leadership should be keenly aware of the potential risks and should be taking steps to prevent the party from descending into chaos.

Northern Zone leader Godbless Lema has been outspoken in his call for unity within the party, urging members to engage in healthy competition without resorting to indiscipline.

Sadly, however, more prominent voices in the party have not joined this ‘unity chorus.’

Lema has stressed the importance of maintaining party cohesion while allowing for fair and transparent elections.

The broader context of Tanzanian politics should play a crucial role in shaping Chadema's response to these tensions.

Opposition parties’ leadership disputes and factionalism have allowed CCM to consolidate its power and remain largely unchallenged.

For Chadema to remain a viable opposition force, it must find a way to balance internal democracy with unity, ensuring that it does not fall into the same traps that have plagued CUF, NCCR-Mageuzi, and TLP.

The lessons from these parties' experiences are clear: leadership struggles, if not handled carefully, can lead to defections, fragmentation, and a loss of influence.

However, the fact that CUF, NCCR-Mageuzi, and TLP have continued to exist, albeit in diminished forms, suggests that there is hope for Chadema.

Chadema’s stronger organisational structure and a more established grassroots base than some of its predecessors could prove crucial in ensuring that the party navigates its internal tensions without experiencing a total collapse.

Moreover, Chadema’s ability to manage these tensions will be a test of its maturity as a political organisation.

If it can successfully navigate these challenges, Chadema will emerge stronger and better equipped to challenge CCM in the 2025 General Election.

Broader implications for Tanzanian politics

The stakes for Chadema are higher than just internal party dynamics.

The 2025 elections are fast approaching, and Chadema’s ability to present a united front will be crucial in its efforts to challenge the ruling CCM.

In recent years, Chadema has seen significant growth in its support base, particularly among youth and urban voters who are dissatisfied with the current political establishment.

These voters are looking for an opposition party that can offer a credible alternative to CCM’s long rule.

If Chadema can successfully navigate its internal conflicts and present strong, unified leadership, it will be better positioned to capitalise on this growing discontent.

A split within Chadema would significantly weaken its ability to challenge CCM, allowing the ruling party to maintain its dominance without a strong opposition.

Additionally, such a division could further disillusion voters, particularly those who are already sceptical about the effectiveness of opposition politics in Tanzania.