Museveni sure of win in fraught election amid internet blackout

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni voiced confidence about extending his rule into a fifth decade during a tense national election held under an internet blackout following a campaign marred by violence.

Museveni told reporters after casting his ballot in western Uganda that he expected to win 80 per cent of the vote "if there's no cheating", dismissing the prospect of an upset victory by popular singer Bobi Wine.

The election is widely seen as a test of the 81-year-old leader's political strength and ability to avoid the kind of unrest that has rocked neighbours Tanzania and Kenya, as speculation mounts about his eventual succession.

Museveni, who has positioned Uganda as a security partner to Western nations since coming to power in 1986, campaigned on a slogan of "protecting the gains", vowing to maintain peace and lift the country into middle-income status.

The 43-year-old Wine, nicknamed the "Ghetto President" for his humble origins, has appealed to young people angry about scarce economic opportunities in a country where the average age is just over 16.

Museveni has warned that security forces would deal firmly with any election day protests. There were no reports of protests as polling stations began to close after 5pm (1400 GMT) and ballot counting began. 

Results are expected within 48 hours. The voting took place amid a heavy police and military presence. The authorities cut internet access across the country on Tuesday to curb what they called misinformation about the election. Many Ugandans turned to an offline messaging app launched by Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey.

During the campaign, security forces repeatedly opened fire at Wine's events, killing at least one person and arresting hundreds of his supporters. Museveni's government has said those actions were a justified response to what it called lawless conduct by opposition supporters.

Museveni's preferred successor

The US denounced Museveni's last election victory in 2021 — when he defeated Wine with 58 per cent of the vote — as neither free nor fair. Similar criticism from President Donald Trump's administration is unlikely after US diplomats were instructed last July not to comment on the integrity of foreign elections.

On Thursday, many polling stations did not open on time because biometric voter verification machines were not working, leading the electoral commission to extend the close of voting by an hour.

Casting his ballot in the Kasangati township, Ronald Tenywa, a 45-year-old university researcher, complained that political leaders "cling on for a long time".

“If we vote for someone who cares, things will be better for Uganda,” he said.

Besides Wine, six other opposition candidates were challenging Museveni — Africa's third-longest-ruling head of state. Voters also chose members of parliament.

Museveni has changed the constitution twice to remove age and term limits and his control of state institutions means he is all but assured of victory, political analysts say. 

As president, he has sent troops to regional hotspots such as Somalia and taken in millions of refugees, winning gratitude from Western governments even as they have voiced concerns about his human rights record.

Economic growth, traditionally reliant on agriculture and tourism, is expected to surge into double digits when crude oil production from fields run by France's TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) and China's CNOOC (600938.SS) begins this year.

Museveni is widely believed to favour his son, military chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba, as his successor, but the president has denied grooming him for the role and his status as heir apparent is opposed by some within the ruling party, analysts say.