El Nino: Why farmers need more information to avert crop damage

El Nino rains rarely occur and normally come with the destruction of crops, which results in a shortage of food.

Last month, the weather agency analysed the trend of weather systems and the trend of autumn rains for October–December 2023 and cautioned stakeholders in various sectors such as agriculture and food security, livestock and fisheries, tourism and wildlife, transport, urban authorities, energy, water and minerals, health, and disaster management to take precautionary measures.

The agency explained the presence of El Nino, which is expected to have a significant contribution to the rains of the autumn season in 2023.

Also, the autumn rains in 2023 are expected to be above average in many areas of the northern coast and along Lake Victoria.

For the north-eastern highlands and a few areas east of Lake Victoria, rains are expected to be average to above average.

TMA has noted that the autumn rains are expected to start in the fourth week of September 2023 in the western areas of Lake Victoria and spread to other areas in October 2023.

“Usually the autumn rains end in December; however, this season the out-of-season rains are expected to continue in January 2024,” TMA explains in a statement while noting that an increase in rainfall is expected during December 2023.

The authority has identified the expected effects as including agricultural activities continuing as usual for the autumn season; however, the soil moisture will increase and affect the growth of some crops in agricultural activities.

Also, the depth of water in rivers and dams is expected to increase, and epidemics are expected to emerge due to water pollution.

Some people who spoke to The Citizen recently have clearly shown that they do not understand how to protect themselves from the effects of El Nino because adequate information has not reached them in their areas.

A farmer in Kisarawe, Coast Region, Mr Hassan Mrisho (27) says he does not have any information about the incoming El Nino in the next season, and he does not know what it means because he has not received that education in the village where he lives.

“We are asking the government to provide us with education, especially rural farmers. I personally have not heard anything about El Nino, and I don’t know what it is or how to mitigate its impacts.

In fact, I don’t have any information; maybe they announced it, but I haven’t followed it up,” says the young man from Kisarawe.

For his part, a resident of Nachingwea district in the Lindi region, Mr Rajab Kilingo (65), says it is not the first time he has heard about El Nino.

However, he does not know how to protect himself from the situation, especially in a rural environment where they do not have immediate help.

“I know El Nino; it happened some years ago when I was young. I remember there was a very serious famine at that time, but we were not given any education. Now, if the same thing happens again, I think they should provide education, especially for the likes of us who live in the villages,” says Mr Kilingo.

TMA Acting Director General, Dr Ladislaus Chang’a, says that the authority has been giving regular information about the weather forecast, so he has asked the general public to closely monitor the information provided by the authority every day.

“That needs to be taken into account, and the citizens can take appropriate measures to improve efficiency in performance as well as save potential harm,” says Dr Chang’a.

The director says that in the Prime Minister’s Office, there is a disaster management unit that continues to give instructions to the people on what they should do and provide information to the people on time.

“We continue to give advice to the city authorities to put the infrastructure in a condition that can facilitate the smooth flow of wastewater but also enable citizens to take precautions,” says Dr Chang’a.

 An expert analyses

Weather analyst Ms Joyce Makwata says areas that receive rain twice a year are expected to have a lot of rain that can cause harm.

She says El Nino is caused by unusually warm waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

She notes that the strength of the forthcoming El Nino differs from those that occurred in 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2014/15.

“The effects of El Nino are different; when there is heavy rain, we expect floods that have various impacts on the environment and infrastructure,” says the expert.

Regarding the possibility of above-average rains, Ms Makwata reminds people living in vulnerable areas to continue monitoring the early information provided by TMA, including the El Nino information.

Early warning is important. Regarding the benefits of El Nino, he says it includes an increase in animal feed, and production in agriculture will increase due to the presence of enough rain.

In the energy sector, electricity will be reliable because the dams will be filled with water.

“So you will definitely see that there are benefits that will be obtained from El Nino, but there are also consequences that may appear. Now, having early precautions will help to avoid these effects. “We advise citizens to get relevant information from TMA but use other information provided by other government institutions,” says Ms Makwata.