TMA warns of El-Nino influenced rains

Dar es Salaam.Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) has said that most parts of the country are set to receive above normal to normal rains during the seasonal which is expected to be influenced by El-Nino conditions.

The season is specifically for areas that receives rains twice a year which includes regions in North Eastern Highlands and few areas of Eastern part of Lake Victoria basin.

The regions are  Kagera, Geita, Mwanza, Shinyanga, southern part of Simiyu, northern part of Kigoma, Dar es Salaam, Tanga, Pwani (including Mafia Island), northern part of Morogoro regions together with the isles of Unguja and Pemba.

However, normal to Above Normal rains are anticipated in Mara, northern part of Simiyu region, Arusha, Manyara and Kilimanjaro regions.

TMA acting Director General Dr. Ladislaus Chang’a was speaking at a press briefing to release the seasonal rainfall outlook for October to December.

Dr Chang'a who is also the Vice Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said due to the presence of El-Niño, occasional rainy periods are expected in September, 2023 in some areas of the country.

However, the seasonal rains are expected to officially start in October, 2023 in many areas.

“The rains are expected to start in fourth week of September to first week of October, 2023 over Kagera region and spreading to other areas during the second week of October, 2023" said Dr Chang'a.

He said the seasonal rains are expected to continue through to January, 2024

Usually the October rains are specific to areas of the northeastern highlands (Arusha, Manyara and Kilimanjaro regions), northern coast (northern part of Morogoro region, Pwani (including Mafia Isles), Dar es Salaam and Tanga.

Other regions are Unguja and Pemba isles), Lake Victoria basin (Kagera, Geita, Mwanza, Shinyanga, Simiyu and Mara regions) and the northern part of Kigoma region.

Normal agricultural activities are anticipated in most areas during the rainy season.

However, periods of excessive soil moisture may occur and affect crops and agricultural activities.

Water levels in the rivers and dams are also likely to increase, and outbreaks of diseases such as vector-borne and water-borne diseases are anticipated due to water contamination.

Dr Chang’a, said by collaborating with various sectors, farmers are advised to prepare their fields, plant, weed, and use relevant farm inputs timely, and use the best methods and technologies to prevent water stagnation in the field, erosion, and loss of soil fertility.

“Choose the right seeds and crops for this short rainy season. It is recommended to strengthen the agricultural infrastructure and control crop pests and diseases timely to reduce potential impacts,” he said.

As for the livestock and fishery sectors, Dr Chang’a advised livestock keepers to practice good animal husbandry in order to conserve pasture and harvest rainwater for future use.

“The community is advised to put in place a good plan for the use and conservation of water and animal feeds. Seaweed farmers are advised to cultivate in deep water to get rid of the effects of rainwater entering the sea,” he said.

In addition, pastoralists and fishermen are advised to use weather forecast updates and adhere to the advice provided by extension officers in order to minimise possible adverse impacts and capitalise on expected favourable conditions during the season.

He said: “Stakeholders in transport are advised to take appropriate measures in the implementation of the construction of various infrastructures as well as regular inspections of the transport and transportation infrastructure to reduce the effects that may arise.”

The anticipated above-normal rains may lead to damage to road and railway infrastructure, resulting in an increased number of accidents for land transport, delays and cancellations of flights, breakdowns of communication in air and maritime navigation, and an increase in operational costs for aviation.

Dr Chang’a wants the private sector to partner with various experts, including meteorologists, to mitigate potential impacts. Banking and insurance institutions are advised to prepare and provide specific services to stakeholders to build resilience in their businesses.

Mr Chang’a said stakeholders should consider the sustainable use and conservation of water resources in mineral processing activities, electricity production, industrial use and domestic use.

Likewise, the relevant authorities are advised to have effective plans for diversification of energy sources as an alternative adaptation to the likely impact of above-normal rains.