He's back! What Trump's return means

Dar es Salaam. Following Mr Donald Trump’s victory in Tuesday’s US presidential election, analysts in Tanzania said on Wednesday that the outcome has set the stage for a policy shift that could impact the global economy and politics across the board.

After Mr Trump pulled off the rare feat of being elected to two non-consecutive presidential terms, the world is waiting to see how he will handle issues such as the war in Ukraine, bloody conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, the US’ policy on the rights of certain individuals, including LGBTQ+, and environmental matters.

The war in Ukraine, although being far from Tanzania and the rest of Africa, poses some challenges on the continent and beyond, especially because as America refocuses its attention to helping Ukraine to repel the Russian invasion, it may pay little attention to other pressing needs like health, education and environmental conservation in developing nations.

Support for Ukraine

The US has so far provided Ukraine with $64.1 billion in military assistance since its war with Russia started on February 24, 2022.

The money is part of a total of $175 billion in aid and military assistance the US Congress has approved to support Ukraine and allied nations since the war began.

But Mr Trump is on record saying he would end Russia’s war in Ukraine “in 24 hours” if he is elected president again.

Mr Trump said at a CNN town hall in May 2023, “They’re dying, Russians and Ukrainians. I want them to stop dying. And I’ll have that done — I’ll have that done in 24 hours.”

He said that would happen after he meets with presidents Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin of Ukraine and Russia, respectively.

Speaking on Wednesday after it became clear that he was winning, Mr Trump repeated that he would end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, saying during his time at the White House from 2017 to 2021, he never started any war.

According to analysts in Tanzanian, if Mr Trump succeeds in ending the wars, it would most likely result in stabilisation of petroleum prices for the benefit of the entire world, including Tanzania.

"Trump is an avowed business advocate, who doesn’t prioritise conflicts or excessive military interventions. His economy-driven approach may lead to steadier global oil prices, which will be an advantage for nations like Tanzania," said a law lecturer at the University of Dar es Salaam, Dr Onesmo Kyauke.

He added that Mr Trump’s minimal involvement in other nations’ domestic affairs could be a relief for African countries, allowing them more freedom in managing internal issues without worrying about US interference.

Similarly, a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East could have some notable benefits, especially  in the form of stable fuel prices.

On the environment, Dr Kyauke observed that Mr Trump’s limited interest in environmental issues might reduce American aid for climate and conservation projects.

“We should expect fewer US grants and support for environmental initiatives under Trump,” he noted.

He said this could impact Tanzania’s environmental agenda, making self-sufficiency more crucial as American support wanes.

Migration is another focal point, with Mr Trump’s stricter immigration policies likely to affect Tanzanians seeking to enter the US.

Dr Kyauke said, however, that this stance is largely about promoting lawful entry rather than preventing immigration entirely.

“Trump’s policy intends to control who enters the US legally, not to exclude foreigners altogether,” he explained, adding that legal migration processes could see more rigorous requirements.

A political scientist and lecturer at the University of Dodoma, Dr Paul Loisulie, pointed out that Mr Trump’s presidency reflects a deep sense of nationalism.

“His ‘America First’ ideology means that we shouldn’t expect frequent diplomatic outreach, especially to African nations,” Dr Loisulie said.

He encouraged Tanzanians to focus on self-reliance, saying, “Trump is primarily concerned with advancing US interests. His policies won’t necessarily favour other countries.”

Dr Loisulie said for Tanzanians, this calls for building economic resilience and reducing dependency on Western powers.

Strengthening local industries

He suggested that Tanzania should prioritise the strengthening local industries and economic policies to become more self-sustaining in response to Mr Trump’s inward-looking approach. In this context, Tanzania’s policymakers should closely monitor these developments.

Dr Loisulie emphasised the importance of aligning with reliable allies and focusing on internal growth.

“With Trump back at the helm, Tanzania should look to foster its own resilience, concentrating on economic empowerment.”

A political analyst at the Open University of Tanzania, Dr Revocatus Kabobe, said there will likely be a shift in US foreign aid policy, particularly in family planning and humanitarian programmes.

“NGOs relying on US funding could struggle as Trump reallocates resources to domestic matters,” he said.

However, Dr Kabobe noted that Mr Trump’s business acumen could positively impact global economic stability, especially with the dollar’s value, potentially easing international trade tensions.

He added that the Ukraine-Russia conflict, which is having global ramifications, could end under Mr Trump’s mediation.

“Trump is less inclined to fund wars indefinitely. He may push for a peace deal, possibly conceding some Ukrainian territory to Russia, a controversial move, but one that could end the war and stabilise oil prices,” Dr Kabobe said.

He added that while such a shift could be beneficial for African economies, it might send jitters across Europe as Russia consolidates its influence.

Dr Kabobe said Mr Trump will likely increase military support for Israel, while Iran could face stricter sanctions.

“However, support for Israel may not go down well with Palestinians and peace advocates worldwide.”

Tense US-China relations

Dr Kabobe added that the world should brace for an escalation in US-Iran tensions, which could affect global markets and security alliances, and tense relations between the US and China.

“Trump’s administration previously imposed heavy trade restrictions on China and this rivalry is likely to intensify following his coming into office for the second time,” he said, warning that an escalated economic confrontation could impact global markets, particularly in regions that are reliant on China-US trade dynamics.

Dr Kabobe further noted that Trump’s policies on issues like LGBTQ+ rights may bring changes in US funding for social programmes in Africa as American policies could become less supportive of certain advocacy efforts.

“It’s good news for Africa because issues like LGBTQ+ rights won’t see the same advocacy push in line with Trump’s conservative stance.”

The academic added that as Trump begins his term, Tanzanians can expect his administration to focus sharply on protecting American interests, likely through economic and military means.

"Trump’s adherence to realism, a core principle of Republican policy, means he’ll pursue US interests assertively," Dr Kabobe said, citing a probable mix of diplomatic and economic pressure on nations that challenge American dominance.