Mixed views over timing of Chadema's elections

Dar es Salaam. Political analysts have weighed in on Chadema’s decision to conduct internal elections this year, calling it a strategic but precarious move that could either strengthen or fragment the Tanzania’s largest opposition party ahead of the General Election.

The elections, which are held every five years, come at a pivotal moment for Chadema as it seeks to position itself as a credible alternative to the ruling party, CCM, in this year’s elections, later this year.

Chadema’s elections scheduled for January 21 have divided its senior leaders and their respective followers due to the race for the chairmanship.

The party’s vice chairman for mainland Tanzania, Mr Tundu Lissu, is challenging the current chairman, Mr Freeman Mbowe, who is accused of overstaying in power.

However, the timing has raised eyebrows, with analysts warning that this contest could deepen divisions within the party, in the time when the opposition needs to strategise for the upcoming polls.

Speaking to The Citizen, a political analyst from the University of Dar es Salaam, Dr Richard Mbunda, describes Chadema’s decision as both bold and risky.

“These elections are essential for renewing the party’s leadership and aligning its strategies ahead of the General Election. But when two influential figures like Mbowe and Lissu compete for the chairmanship, the risk of internal divisions cannot be ignored. If either of them loses, it could create factions that weaken the party’s national campaign,” he observed.

He further noted that Chadema has a history of managing internal elections with varying degrees of success. He stressed that the leadership must prioritise unity and inclusivity.

“For Chadema to emerge stronger from this process, its leadership must find ways to bring all factions together after the elections, regardless of the outcome,” he added.

The potential contest between Mbowe and Lissu has become a focal point of discussions surrounding Chadema’s internal elections.

Mbowe has led the party for over two decades and is credited with building its organisational capacity and solidifying its position as Tanzania’s main opposition force.

Lissu, on the other hand, has gained significant international and domestic recognition, particularly after surviving an assassination attempt in 2017 and his outspoken criticism of the ruling government.

Prof Makame Ali Ussi from the State University of Zanzibar (SUZA) views the contest as a litmus test for Chadema’s internal democracy. However, he cautioned that the stakes are higher than ever.

“The party cannot afford to come out of these elections divided. Chadema’s success in the General Election depends on presenting a united front. Any sign of discord could play into the hands of their opponents,” he remarked.

For his part, a political scientist from the University of Dodoma, Dr Paul Loisulie, commented: “Conducting internal elections in an election year is a risky strategy.

It could overstretch the party’s resources and focus, especially with such a high-stakes contest for the chairmanship.

The leadership must ensure that the internal process does not overshadow the national campaign.”

He pointed out that voter fatigue could also become an issue.

“Party members might struggle to differentiate between the objectives of the internal elections and the national campaign. Chadema must clearly communicate its vision and goals to prevent confusion and maintain momentum,” he emphasised.

Despite these concerns, another analyst from the University of Dar es Salaam, Dr Onesmo Kyauke, sees potential benefits in holding internal elections this year.

“These elections provide Chadema with an opportunity to renew its grassroots structures and energise its supporters. By involving members at all levels, the party can build momentum for the national elections,” he noted.

However, Dr Kyauke also warned that logistical challenges could undermine the process.

“Organising elections on this scale requires significant resources and coordination. Any missteps could damage the party’s credibility and give its critics an advantage,” he said.

On the other hand, analyst from the Open University of Tanzania, Dr Revocatus Kabobe framed Chadema’s internal elections as a double-edged sword.

“While leadership renewal is essential for maintaining the party’s dynamism, it also carries risks of disunity, especially when high-profile figures like Mbowe and Lissu are involved. The party’s ability to manage this process will be a key determinant of its success in the General Election,” he argued.

Dr Kabobe also highlighted the symbolic importance of the elections.

“For Chadema’s supporters and the general electorate, these elections are a demonstration of the party’s commitment to democracy and accountability. However, any signs of disorganisation or infighting could tarnish its image,” he said.

He added: “Chadema’s internal elections are not just about leadership renewal but also about strengthening its grassroots structures.”

Dr Kyauke noted that the elections offer an opportunity to engage with members at the grassroots level, energising them for the national campaign.

“Chadema’s strength lies in its ability to mobilise supporters across the country. These elections can serve as a platform to reinforce its grassroots networks and rally its base ahead of the general election,” he said.

However, this process is not without challenges. Dr Loisulie warned that the mobilisation of members could strain the party’s resources and divert attention from the national campaign.