The Lowassa factor and how it influenced the 2015 elections

The 2015 General Election was a defining moment in Tanzania’s democratic transition. The elections were held against the backdrop of the failure by CCM to bring about the much sought-after constitution review.

But the polls were also held in an environment where back-to-back revelations of big corruption scandals were the order of the day. It was also the time when government inefficiency in service delivery had reached unprecedented levels.

Obviously all this put CCM highly on the defensive as it faced the real possibility of losing power. At the end of it all, however, the elections were for the Opposition to lose.

Also Read: Former Premier Lowassa becomes one of President Magufuli’s guarantors

As a matter of fact, it was the first time, since the re-introduction of political pluralism in 1992 and the first multiparty elections in 1995, that the grand matters of democratic principles had the potential to determine voters’ choices in the elections.

But also the 2015 electoral battleground terrain influenced how the ruling party and the Opposition settled for their presidential candidates; John Magufuli for the former and Edward Lowassa for the latter.

The two candidates were risky bets for each camp, but the choices were necessitated by the unusual situation Tanzania’s democratic journey found itself in.

Grand corruption

No longer had President Jakaya Kikwete settled in office after his victory in the 2005 presidential election than Tanzanians were treated to the first major corruption saga of the decade, the External Payment Arrears (EPA) scandal.

In this scandal $133 million was siphoned from the Bank of Tanzania (BoT) coffers by fraudsters who posed as legal businesses with legitimate claims. But as it turned out this scandal was only a promo in the 10-year period of governance and accountability low road that Tanzania travelled in.

Two years after President Kikwete assumed the presidency, the Prime Minister, Edward Lowassa, had to resign after being implicated in the Richmond scandal. This scandal was about a fake US-based company that was contracted by the then Ministry of Energy and Minerals in a multibillion power deal.

Other scandals followed suit and President Kikwete finished his presidency with the Tegeta Escrow account scandal in which $120 million was illegally withdrawn from an escrow account at the BoT. Tanzanians went to the 2015 elections with this scandal fresh in their minds.

Constitution-making process

President Kikwete, solely, kick-started the constitution-making process in 2012. As people started realising what was going on, the Constitution Review Commission (CRC) headed by Justice Joseph Warioba, had already been crisscrossing the country collecting views. The public opinions were contained in the Warioba Draft that was tabled at the Constituent Assembly (CA) in February 2014.

The Assembly, dominated by members from CCM and affiliate organisations, watered down the Warioba Draft and left its main proposals on the structure of the Union, the independent National Electoral Commission, the powers of the presidency, and so forth.

But the final CA’s Proposed Draft Constitution was rejected by the Opposition who walked out and formed a formidable coalition (known in its Kiswahili acronym as Ukawa) that gave CCM a run for its money in the 2015 polls.

After walking out of the CA the Opposition went to the people in countrywide rallies and built a credible case against CCM as the party that spoiled the constitution process. The Opposition united and in one voice, accused CCM of trying to use its majority in the CA to bully the rest of the members into accepting clauses that protected itself against reprisals from corruption and mismanagement of public financial resources.

CCM, on the other hand, tried to paint the Opposition as cowardly and its politicians as immature, who opposed everything that did not fast-track their journey to the State House. CCM vowed to continue with the constitution-making process without the Opposition but as fate would have it, the process stalled early 2015 before the referendum was held.

Why the Kikwete government did not pursue the constitution-making process to its logical conclusion will never be known but it could have been because of the negative public perception of the process after the Opposition had walked out.

Bolstered by its unity and the credibility of its message the Opposition approached the 2015 General Election with confidence. On the other hand, CCM, battered by a series of scandals and a botched constitution process, was looking for a lifeline to hang on to. It got a shaky one in the name of Magufuli and barely survived in the elections due to the Opposition’s self-inflicted injuries by the choice of its presidential candidate, Lowassa.

Magufuli vs Lowassa

The 2015 elections were supposed to be a turning point in Tanzania’s democratic transition. But it ended up being an anti-climax that set the stage for a reversal of democratic gains that had been attained since the struggle for democracy started in the early 1980s.

One interesting feature is that while CCM was trying hard to distance its candidate from the corruption-tainted government, specifically, and the party, generally, the Opposition was banking on its credibility to shore-up its candidate.

Magufuli had a much more favourable public image. He was considered as a no-nonsense, hard-working Cabinet minister who played a significant role in building roads, opening up the previously impassable country. Magufuli had also come out unscathed by all the corruption that characterised CCM in the ten years of the Kikwete’s administration.

But the baggage carried by CCM and its government could still hurt its chances in the ballot. Fortunately CCM had its homework and started distancing itself from the corruption within the government as early as 2013 when the then Secretary General Abdulrahman Kinana and Ideology and Publicity Secretary Nape Nnauye went around the country castigating Cabinet ministers and senior public officials for embezzlement and under-performance.

In the public rallies the two CCM Secretariat officials called upon government officials to resign, sometimes mentioning them by names. The duo also said those implicated in the corruption scandals should be held personally responsible and prosecuted for the crimes they committed.

Meanwhile, when Lowassa resigned as Prime Minister in 2008 following the Richmond scandal his political fate was sealed. It didn’t matter whether he was really involved or was just politically implicated.

The resignation tainted him. His opponents, as well as the Opposition, successfully painted him as the ‘doyen of corruption’ in the country.

Rumours circulating about his untold wealth, coupled with his lacklustre efforts to explain the source of that wealth, added salt to injury. Whenever asked about the source of his wealth he kept saying it was his friends,’ which raised more questions than answers.

However, despite resigning from the premiership position Mr Lowassa’s popularity within CCM, somehow, did not wither. He was able to build and maintain a well-oiled network that ensured that he would clinch the presidential nomination had his name entered the voting stage in the powerful National Executive Committee. It didn’t.

CCM, unsure of how to deal with the issue of corruption in the approaching presidential election campaigns, considered his ‘doyen of corruption’ image as more of a liability than an asset and dumped him. He decamped to the Opposition with some of his followers where a deal was reached for him to become the Ukawa’s flagbearer. That was the Opposition’s mistake. It put them on the defensive and enabled CCM to reclaim the anti-corruption mantle, with a glee. The issue of the constitution was relegated to the background as the Opposition tried hard to clean Mr Lowassa’s image and explain why he was the right choice to bring change in the country.

Despite all the setbacks in his image, however, Mr Lowassa drew extra-large crowds in his rallies and ended up garnering up 40 percent of all votes against Magufuli’s 58.5 percent. What could have happened had the Opposition fronted a formidable candidate other than Lowassa would never be known.