According to the outlook, regions likely to be affected include Mara, Mwanza, Simiyu, Shinyanga, Arusha, Tanga and the northern coastal strip
Dar es Salaam. The Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) has projected that several parts of the country will experience normal to below-normal rainfall during the upcoming vuli season, which runs from October to December 2025.
According to the outlook, regions likely to be affected include Mara, Mwanza, Simiyu, Shinyanga, Arusha, Tanga and the northern coastal strip.
The rains are expected to start in the first and second week of October in Kagera, Geita, Mwanza, Mara and the northern part of Kigoma, before spreading to Simiyu and Shinyanga by the fourth week of October.
They are anticipated to commence in early to mid-November over the northeastern highlands and the northern coast, with the season ending in January 2026.
TMA Acting Director General, Dr Ladislous Chang’a, cautioned that the season is likely to be characterised by prolonged dry spells and uneven distribution of rainfall, particularly in the northeastern highlands and the coast.
However, enhanced rainfall is expected across most areas in December.
He added that extreme weather events, such as heavy downpours, may occur even in areas forecast to receive normal to below-normal rainfall.
“While the outlook covers the three-month season, short-term variability will be addressed in daily and monthly forecasts. We urge the public, farmers and stakeholders to make use of regular updates issued by the authority,” said Dr Chang’a.
On agriculture, he warned that below-normal rainfall may cause moisture stress affecting crop growth, potentially reducing yields for rain-fed crops, and increasing the prevalence of pests such as rodents and termites.
Conversely, excessive rainfall could lead to waterlogging, nutrient leaching and higher risks of fungal diseases affecting bananas, maize, beans, cassava and rice.
Farmers were advised to prepare fields early, select appropriate seeds, adopt soil and water conservation practices, and seek advice from agricultural extension officers.
On livestock and fisheries, Dr Chang’a noted that limited rainfall could trigger water and pasture shortages, fuelling conflicts between pastoralists and other land users.
Areas receiving above-normal rainfall, however, may benefit from increased pasture and water availability, though risks of diseases such as Rift Valley fever and foot-and-mouth disease remain.
He also said flooding may affect the water and mining sectors in flood-prone areas, as heavy rains are expected to increase river flow and water levels.
The short rains are specific to the northeastern highlands (Arusha, Manyara and Kilimanjaro), the northern coast (Pwani, Tanga, Dar es Salaam, northern Morogoro and Mafia Isles), the Lake Victoria Basin (Kagera, Geita, Mwanza, Shinyanga, Simiyu and Mara) and northern Kigoma, as well as Zanzibar and Pemba.
