Why these 11 regions may matter to your business

Dar es Salaam. If you have long-term ambitions in business investment or political career, then you should consider directing your energies in 11 regions for you to be assured of a large enough market, labour force or a big pool of voters in the next ten years.

These 11 regions saw their population levels increasing by over 50 percent during the past ten years fuelled by religious beliefs and the desire to build enough manpower to man farming, fishing, mining and similar economic undertakings at household levels.

Also Read: What census data means for Tanzania's economy

The regions and their population percentage increases in brackets when compared to 2012 population figures against those of 2022 are: Zanzibar’s Urban West (406), Katavi (120), Coast (96), Geita (85), Unguja South (79), Rukwa (66), Tabora (59), Dodoma (58), Shinyanga (57), Singida (57) and Morogoro (53).

An analysis of the just released 2022 National Population and Housing Census results show that while the 11 regions may not have the highest numbers of people, they have the highest population growth rates that could be utilised to the advantage of those seeking to invest, do business or build a political career in the next ten years.

For instance, while there were only 176,381 people in Zanzibar’s Urban West Region in 2012, the number has since grown more than four-fold to a staggering 893,169 or an increase of a cool 716,788 people during the past ten years.

Similarly, while there were only 523,293 people in Katavi in 2012, the population has grown by a cool 629,665 people to bring the region’s population to 1,152,958 within a span of ten years.

A 96 percent increase saw the population of Coast Region growing from 1,035,191, in 2012 to 2,024,947 in 2022 while in the mineral-rich Geita, the number climbed from 1,609,385 in 2012 to 2,977,608 in 2022.

While a 79 percent in South Unguja puts the region’s population at 195,873, a 66 percent rise in Rukwa was enough to see the region crossing the one million-mark for the first time to reach 1.54 million.

In absolute numbers, the population of Tabora rose from 2.1 million in 2012 to 3.39 million in 2022 while that of Dodoma – apparently fuelled by the shifting of government seat from Dar es Salaam to the new capital – rose from 1.9 million in 2012 to 3.09 million in 2022.

In the mineral-rich Shinyanga, the population climbed from 1.4 million in 2012 to 2.24 million in 2022 while Singida currently has 2.008 million individuals from 1.28 million ten years ago. In Morogoro, the population jumped from 2.09 million in 2012 to 3.197 million in 2022.

The increase in the 11 regions and several others is far beyond the national average ten-year growth rate of 37 percent.

Four on top ten

Four of the 11 regions--Tabora, Morogoro, Dodoma and Geita--have also made to the list of ten regions with the highest population in Tanzania.

Tabora ranks third after Dar es Salaam (5.38 million) and Mwanza (3.7 million) while Morogoro and Dodoma are ranked fourth and fifth respectively. Kagera comes sixth while Geita comes seventh. Tanga (2.6 million), Kigoma (2.47 million) and Mara (2.3 million) to complete the top-ten list.

Analysts say the growth of population in the regions could be propelled by the availability of economic opportunities which compel the youth to migrate to those areas in large numbers.

“The presence of minerals and mining activities in Geita and Shinyanga could possibly explain why the population is rising at a terrific rate in those regions,” said a Dar es Salaam-based sociologist and consultant Hamid Chosei.

He said a rise in population in regions other than the key cities of Dar es Salaam, Mwanza, Arusha, Mbeya, Tanga and Dodoma, was an indication that government efforts to improve social service delivery was having an impact on people’s decisions regarding where to go to in search of greener pastures.

“It simply means that the economic opportunities that are available in major cities could as well be found in other regions and therefore, no need to flock to major urban centres in search of greener pastures,” he said.

Dr Chosei was of the view that an increase in population must be taken to mean a rise in economic opportunities.

University of Dodoma’s agricultural trade economist Letengano Mwinuka shared similar sentiments.

“This means that residents of the relevant areas do not migrate to other regions in large numbers for various social and economic reasons due to the presence of opportunities like agriculture, mining, fishing and the availability of social services like healthcare, education and good roads in their own areas,” he said.

A retired medical officer at the Tanzania Military Academy (TMA), Dr Majige Nkhilomellah, told The Citizen recently that a majority of the people, especially women in the said regions, were influenced by their religious beliefs which imply that a woman will have as many children as she is biologically capable to bear.

Dr Nkhilomellah was of the view that religion believes children to be gifts from God hence forbids contraceptive use, which is considered immoral, so people are encouraged to have as many children as they can.

Moreover, the retired doctor thinks that women with higher levels of education tend to have greater autonomy to make decisions related to the number of children they want to have, compared to those who are less educated.

In certain communities, analysts say, the belief is that having a large number of children is not only a blessing but also a source of manpower.

It is not uncommon in some rural settings to find a man with several wives and tens of children who all grow up tilling the land and thus never experiencing any food shortage.

The World Bank estimate for 2020 showed that Tanzania had a fertility rate of 4.8 births per woman, largely due to early marriages and low use of contraception.

With an average economic growth of about 6.0 percent during the past two decades or so, Tanzania has been able to surmount abject poverty for a good percentage of the population.

In 2000, some 86 percent of Tanzanians lived in impoverished conditions, but this number dropped to 28 percent in 2018.

In its 2019 analysis, titled: ‘Tanzania-Mainland Poverty Assessment’, the World Bank noted that the country’s sustained economic growth helped it to level up from poor or under developed country to Lower-Middle Income Country.

More men than women

While at national level, women account for 51 percent of the 61.7 million population, Unguja South and Manyara regions emerged as the odd ones out.

The two regions have more male than female individuals.

In Manyara, the Population and Housing Census, 2022, puts the number of males at 954,879 while that of females is at 937,623. In Unguja South there are 98,362 males compared to 97,506 females.

Some experts noted that it was possible that there were more young males than females in the two regions, hence leading to this situation.