Do Russians want war? And how about Ukrainians?

By Sergey AlexandrovRecently, in countries of the collective West, as well as in Ukraine, statements about the alleged possible invasion of Russia into Ukrainian territory and the seizure of a significant part of it have been heard quite clearly and with increasing insistence.

At the same time, Western countries, primarily the United States and Great Britain, have continued to supply Ukraine with various kinds of weapons and send military instructors there.

 Nato countries have constantly declare support for Kiev and tirelessly insist that they will not leave Ukraine alone in its confrontation with Russia.

Along with that, the propaganda machine of both the West and Ukraine itself is plugging away: not a day goes by that you don't hear about Russia's alleged preparations for an invasion of ‘democratic’ Ukraine, whether in TV programs, on the radio or pages of publications.

 Moreover, the world community is force-fed with information that Moscow is building up its armed forces along the Russian-Ukrainian border, which, in their opinion, is evidence of Russia's belligerence.

 At the same time, hardly anyone thinks that Moscow is moving its troops in its own territory.

As a result of anti-Russian propaganda, many people in the West and in Ukraine itself have the impression that Russia is really engaged in preparing an invasion of its neighbor.

Officially, Moscow has repeatedly stated that this is disproportionate to reality, being pure fiction.

In particular, Russian President Vladimir Putin calls rumors and speculations about Russia's invasion of Ukraine nothing but utter nonsense.

At the same time, given the escalation of anti-Russian hysteria and aggravation at the Ukrainian-Russian border, one cannot exclude the emergence of an armed conflict in south-eastern Ukraine.

 Though there are no serious prerequisites for this at the moment. This may happen if the Ukrainian authorities choose a forceful means of resolving the conflict with the DPR and LPR.

Russia does not intend to initiate a war with Ukraine. Given that comedian Zelensky is at the helm in Kiev, a forceful method of solving the problem of Donbass is entirely possible.

Predicting how the situation will develop is a matter of immense complexity. Apparently, a diplomatic resolution to the Donbass situation can hardly be expected especially with the lack of desire on the part of Kiev to comply with the Minsk agreements.

In this dynamic, the conflict in south-eastern Ukraine may be frozen indefinitely, like the Transnistrian one.

Another option is highly undesirable,  a local war in the Donbass the Ukrainian authorities may embark upon, which Russia will certainly engage in to protect 600 thousand Russian citizens.

At the same time, such a scenario suggests a highly probable absence of a nuclear war between Russia and the United States.

 Yes, in case of a military conflict with Moscow, Kiev really counts on US and Nato assistance, but Washington has sent a clear message that the United States does not intend to engage in an armed confrontation with Russia over Ukraine.

 In particular, President Joe Biden made it clear to Kiev that the United States will not protect non-Nato Ukraine from anyone's aggression.

It is worth noting that the United States is hardly ready to even defend members of the North Atlantic Alliance under Article 5. That was clearly shown by their shameful flight from Afghanistan in August this year, when they simply abandoned their NATO allies and hastily evacuated their troops alone.

Zelensky can hardly count on the West, especially now that there has been some progress along the path of a possible dialogue between Moscow and Washington after the Putin-Biden teleconference of December 7.

Primarily as regards global strategic stability, at least the anti-Russian rhetoric from Washington has somewhat subsided in recent days, with American officials having started visiting Moscow more frequently.

It is quite obvious that the Biden administration has other things to worry about except for Ukraine and Kiev's plans to unleash a full-scale war in the Donbass.

Washington is more concerned about relations between China and Russia, which, as demonstrated by President Putin's talks with President Xi Jinping on December 15, are progressively strengthening their cooperation.

And Washington is extremely concerned about further rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing.

And still, the United States will admittedly preserve its interest in Ukraine's tense relations with Russia.

To some extent, it is even beneficial for Washington to maintain the conflict in the Donbass in a state of ‘neither peace nor war’, which will string up both Kiev and Moscow.

 It is safe to say that the United States will keep using Ukraine as leverage over Russia for years to come