Analysts divided on Kinana’s exit as successors list takes shape

Dar es Salaam. Opinion remained divided yesterday over the possible reasons behind the resignation of CCM Vice Chairman Abdulrahman Kinana from his position as two names rank highly on the list of ruling party’s chairperson on who will succeed the veteran politician.

Mr Kinana reportedly tendered his resignation which was later accepted by the CCM national chairperson, President Samia Suluhu Hassan.

In a statement issued on July 29, 2024, CCM's Secretary for Ideology, Publicity, and Training, Amos Makala, said Kinana had written a letter seeking to step down and that in response, the CCM Chairperson Samia accepted.

"It is true that when I asked you to assist us in the position of Vice Chairperson, I promised that you would serve for a short period as requested.

I truly wanted you to continue assisting us, but since you have insisted and a promise is a debt, I must accept your resignation with a heavy heart," the letter reads.

With the resignation of Mr Kinana, a veteran political strategist who managed the election campaigns of former presidents, Benjamin Mkapa, Jakaya Kikwete and John Magufuli, leaves analysts pondering on two names that would potentially succeed him.

Those being named include former Prime Minister Mizengo Pinda and veteran politician and former cabinet minister Stephen Wasira.

Analysts say Mr Kinana’s resignation stems from the need for the party’s leadership, under President Hassan, to consolidate itself ahead of the 2025 general election.

"CCM is very adept at reading the signs of the times, particularly when it comes to its leaders and veteran members.

They are politically mature enough to make wise decisions at the times when such decisions are most needed for the benefit of the party," said Prof Ali Makame Usi of the State University of Zanzibar (SUZA).

Mr Kinana, who was the CCM Secretary General towards the end of Mr Kikwete’s presidency and during the early days of the late Magufuli’s tenure, was appointed CCM's Vice Chairperson in April 2022, succeeded Philip Mangula.

However, some analysts reveal it as a sign of early preparation for the following election rallies in the country such as civic polls in 2024 and general elections in 2025.

Prof Usi said what was currently happening indicates CCM's preparations for the upcoming elections, especially the general election in 2025.

According to him, what Kinana has done was appropriate and wise because he has served the party for a long time in various positions and has performed well in those roles.

By retiring at this time, it means he is leaving room for others to serve the party as he was once given the opportunity.

"CCM is clever in knowing who should hold which position and for how long.

That’s exactly what founding president, Julius Nyerere did when he handed over the leadership of the country to the late President Ali Hassan Mwinyi.

“It is something they have mastered, and it has never troubled them.

It is people outside the party who usually perceive turbulence within the party, but those within the party are always in harmony because this is how they run their party and keep it relevant at all times," he notes.

He went on to say that this strategy of veteran politicians relinquishing their positions to experienced politicians within the party makes it stronger by establishing a foundation for other politicians to grow and take on leadership roles, while those below them continue to be nurtured to take on those roles in the future.

"Having a good rotation system for a long-standing party like CCM is the best thing to have as a party because it shows they have already established a good strategy for selecting their leaders, whether through emergency means or the normal internal processes of the party, which keeps them strong at all times," he said.

Others believe that Kinana has been within the party in various capacities for a very long time and thus it was possible that he has evaluated himself and seen that his age has advanced, hence the need to step aside.

“This is because, automatically, the President of the country is also the CCM Chairman as per the party's tradition from the beginning. Consequently.

This forces the Vice Chairman to carry out many of the duties that should be performed by the Chairman due to the Chairman's busy schedule in handling the government business.

“He must have assessed himself and seen that his age and the demands of the position do not align, and it is best to leave the position to others who have enough energy to keep up with this election period in the country, that is, the civic polls in 2024 and the general election in 2025,” said a political analyst, Dr Onesmo Kyauke.

He said CCM will not be shaken in any way by Kinana's departure because it is run like an institution.

As such, the party knows how to produce leaders who can fill various positions at any given time when any post remains vacant due to retirement, death, resignation or any other reason.

"It is just like when President Magufuli died, people thought CCM would falter, but due to the strength of the party's systems, it is very difficult to weaken because of someone's retirement or departure from a particular leadership position," he notes.

According Dr Kyauke who is also a law lecturer at the University of Dar es Salaam, that is one of the reasons why CCM continues to remain in power because even if someone has influence or capability to a certain extent, they cannot be so significant that the party feels it cannot continue well without them in a leadership position.

“With CCM's systems, anyone given the mandate to sit in that seat will not struggle to fit in, considering how the party has many experienced politicians who can undoubtedly fill that position,” he shares.

With similar sentiments, the University of Dar es Salaam Political Scientist, Dr Richard Mbunda, said that Kinana's resignation was the right thing for the party because it is evident that he returned to the party leadership to assist President Samia Suluhu Hassan, who at that time was becoming the new CCM Chairperson following the unexpected death of President Magufuli.

"He has done an excellent job of helping the Chairperson, who was not very experienced in the party's top leadership (President Samia), and it is his right to rest now," he shares.

He says it was clear that this was expected to happen because Kinana had already declined to continue serving as the party's Secretary-General after the 2015 election, stating that he wanted to rest.

"He has helped the party a lot, and it is the right time for him to leave room for others and remain as an advisor," he says.

He went on to say that because of the wealth of cadres within the party, there is no way they could be affected by his departure from party leadership.

"CCM has many experienced cadres who can be utilized in that position.

The time he left is appropriate because it allows them to build a good team for the upcoming elections.

However, he is still around, they will certainly seek his advice due to his extensive experience in political activities in the country for a long time," he noted.