What Lukuvi and Kabudi's comeback signals for Tanzania's election season

Dar es Salaam. In a surprising yet calculated move, Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan recently reinstated two seasoned politicians, Mr William Lukuvi and Prof Palamagamba Kabudi, to her cabinet.

The reshuffle, announced on August 14, 2024, has sparked considerable discussion among political analysts and observers.

The return of these experienced leaders is seen by many as a strategic maneuver in preparation for the upcoming local government elections in 2024 and the general elections in 2025.

Prof Kabudi is the new Minister of Constitution and Legal Affairs, a position he held during the reign of former President John Magufuli.

Mr Lukuvi takes on the role of Minister of State in the Prime Minister's Office (Policy, Parliament and Coordination).

In this capacity, Mr Lukuvi will also assume the position of Chief Whip in Parliament.

The Chief Whip is the deputy leader of the government business in the Parliament.

In line with Article 52 (2) of the Constitution of the United Republic of Tanzania, the leader of the government business in the National Assembly is the Prime Minister.

His major task is that of ensuring that government business sails smoothly through parliament.

The Chief Whip plays the role of the House monitor (prefect) whose rod [in terms of pro-government arguments] should be good enough to silence all Members of Parliament (MPs), including those from the ruling party.

Analysts say the Government Chief Whip must be someone who commands respect from lawmakers from both the ruling party and the opposition and Mr Lukuvi perfectly fits in that position especially this time when elections are around the corner and the government will want a respected person to deal with all dissents in the House.

Those who spoke to The Citizen on the appointment of the two respected politicians say the return of Mr Lukuvi and Prof Kabudi to the cabinet is not merely a routine reshuffle but it is rather a calculated move to strengthen the government's standing in the face of upcoming electoral challenges.

A political analyst from the University of Dar es Salaam, Dr Onesmo Kyauke, likens politics to a football match, where having a team with a mix of experienced players and young talents is crucial for success.

He believes that the reinstatement of the two veteran politicians is a strategy to help the government and the ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), withstand the pressures of the forthcoming elections.

"This is a period where both experience and youthful energy are necessary.

A Cabinet filled with only young members might struggle in the upcoming elections.

Bringing these seasoned politicians back into the fold means the government is preparing to handle the electoral challenges using their political acumen and experience," Dr Kyauke explains.

A political scientist from the University of Dodoma (UDOM), Dr Paul Loisulie, echoed Dr Kyauke's sentiments.

He notes that the return of the veteran politicians signals that the party had kept them in reserve for a time like this when their experience and expertise would be most needed.

"These politicians have been in the game for a long time.

Their return to the ministerial positions indicates that the party had them on standby, and now they've decided it's the right time to bring them back.

Their role will be crucial in navigating the complex political landscape as the elections approach," he said.

He further emphasized that politics is dynamic, particularly within CCM, where the party leader is also the head of state.

This dual role allows for flexibility and adaptability in response to the evolving political environment.

"It appears that President Samia identified a gap in her government and saw that these individuals could help fill it.

Given that CCM has experienced cadres like these, it's easy to bring them back to address any challenges that arise," he added.

The analysts also highlight the protective role that the reinstatement of Lukuvi and Kabudi could play within the government.

According to Dr Loisulie, having seasoned politicians in the Cabinet could serve as a buffer against potential scandals or political attacks, which often target less experienced or more controversial figures.

"Their presence in the Cabinet, considering their age and background, makes it difficult for those with malicious intent to create scandals or exploit their past actions," he noted.

Furthermore, the return of these leaders is seen as a move to consolidate internal party factions.

Dr Loisulie pointed out that every political party has internal groups with varying interests.

By reinstating influential figures like Lukuvi and Kabudi, President Samia is likely attempting to unify these factions, thereby strengthening the party as it heads into the election season.

"This move by President Samia shows her intent to unify her party by bringing back influential figures who can help bridge the gaps between various factions within CCM," he observed.

A lecturer in political science and public administration at the University of Zanzibar (Suza), Prof Ali Makame Ussi, offered a metaphorical analysis of the situation.

He likened President Samia's decision to a double-edged sword that can cut both ways.

"In this high-pressure period leading up to the elections, the performance of the government in office can either secure its continued hold on power or lead to its downfall.

By reinstating such experienced individuals, the President is essentially betting on their ability to perform at the highest level," Prof Ussi explained.

He said the President's decision to bring back Kabudi and Lukuvi reflects her awareness of the critical juncture at which her government stands.

"She's brought back individuals who are not only experienced but also capable of delivering in their assigned roles.

Their familiarity with these positions makes it easier for them to perform at a high level," he said.

One of the most compelling perspectives comes from Revocatus Kabobe, a political scientist and lecturer at the Open University of Tanzania.

He takes a slightly different view, suggesting that while the return of Lukuvi and Kabudi may be linked to the upcoming elections, it also reflects their continued value as advisors to the President.

"I understand that the return of Prof Kabudi and Mr Lukuvi to the Cabinet might be associated with the upcoming elections this year and next year. However, I hold a different view regarding their return," Kabobe stated.

He recalled that both senior politicians were assigned special tasks directly by the President as her advisors after their initial tenure in the Cabinet.

Prof Kabudi, for instance, was appointed to lead the Presidential Advisory Body on matters related to contracts, both bilateral and multilateral.

According to him, this national think tank played a significant role in various contracts during the late president, John Magufuli regime, so it was no surprise to Kabobe that Kabudi was chosen to advise president on such matters.

"As for Mr Lukuvi, his appointment was also strategic, given his extensive experience in political affairs since 1995.

His role was to provide the President with guidance on political matters," Kabobe added.

Dr Kabobe believes that their return to the Cabinet can be seen from several angles.

According to him, it strengthens the constitutional role of the Cabinet in advising the President on policy, legal, and other national interests, and also allows them to oversee policy issues that may arise from the technical advice they've provided over the past two years.

"Their work could be adopted by ministries as policy matters, and it's important to note that ministers are responsible for all policy issues within their respective ministries," he said.