14 million lives at risk globally as USAID shuts down, study warns

Dar es Salaam. A total of 132 countries that have benefited directly from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) are now at risk of losing up to 14 million lives by 2030, following the agency’s official closure, a new study has warned.

The research, published in the scientific journal The Lancet, details how two decades of progress in reducing child and adult mortality could swiftly be undone due to the abrupt withdrawal of aid.

“Our projections indicate that if the funding cuts announced and implemented in the first half of 2025 are not reversed, a substantial number of preventable deaths could occur by 2030,” the researchers cautioned.

Unlike earlier studies that focused only on direct health outcomes, the new research also examines secondary effects that could lead to both loss of life and livelihoods, ultimately undermining health gains.

Beyond health, USAID has supported initiatives in poverty reduction, education, financial inclusion, water supply, and sanitation—programmes that significantly impact health outcomes indirectly.

“Our estimates are often higher than previous projections because they consider not only the immediate effects of USAID’s health programmes but also the broader impact of its development assistance. These wider effects have likely contributed significantly to reductions in mortality,” the study notes.

Between 2000 and 2023, deaths of children under five fell from 10.1 million to 4.8 million globally.

However, the researchers warn that the gains made could be reversed, threatening efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal of reducing under-five mortality to fewer than 25 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2030.

The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, in a 900-word speech titled Make Foreign Aid Great Again, announced the decision to dissolve USAID.

Mr Rubio argued that American taxpayers should not continue funding what he termed “failing governments in distant nations.”

The study shows that USAID support contributed to a more than 50 percent global reduction in malaria and neglected tropical diseases between 2001 and 2021.

It also attributes a 44 percent drop in child mortality and a 15 percent average decline in overall mortality to USAID funding.

In total, an estimated 91 million deaths were averted, including 30 million among children under five.

The researchers warn that the consequences of ending such aid could rival a global pandemic or war—with the key difference being that this crisis is preventable through policy change.