Trump victory raises East Africa uncertainties on economy and security

Uganda on its part will hope for better tidings after frustrations with Joe Biden over the LGBTQ+ rights, just as South Sudan will hope its transition problems can get better funding.

For Kigali and Kinshasa, they may want to see if Trump has a better way of resolving the eastern Congo conflict while Tanzania will be checking to see if Washington opens its purse to continue with the Lobito Corridor.

For Somalia, a transition security mission will need US backing, and so is the tension with Ethiopia over a controversial maritime MoU with Somaliland.

Trump defeated his rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, winning back the seat he had lost to Joe Biden in 2020. And whether he returns as a changed man or the old self is something we can wait to see.

His presidency in the first term had shown he would be unpredictable, even though the running thread in all that had been ‘America First.’ His word was difficult to take plainly or seriously.

And all eyes will now be on Trump, once he takes power formally in January, to see how he upends policies targeting African countries like Kenya, or maintain a trajectory albeit with a shift in priorities.

“Given all those demographics that make Africa more important to a second Trump administration than to the first, another Trump term would likely focus on enhancing trade with the continent,” said Vin Weber, a former US representative from Minnesota and a former advisor to several Republican campaigns for president.

“There is already ample evidence that the US-China rivalry will intensify on the African continent, especially when it comes to the US increasing focus on critical minerals and their supply chains.”

Mr Weber says a second Trump administration would be likely to confront terror threats forcefully, by strengthening US Africa Command and by assisting African anti-terror efforts. In the first term, he had withdrawn ground troops in Somalia, which had been there to support local forces. Biden reversed the decision four months after he took office.

One other big moment to watch will be the 2025 reauthorisation of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) whose bipartisan process is currently under way in the US Congress.

“While Trump is more prone to bilateral trade deals than sprawling agreements, Agoa is finding broader and deeper support in the business communities on both continents, so there is no reason to believe that Trump would seek to weaken the trade deal,” said Mr Weber.

“One in four people on the planet is projected to be African by 2050. That demographic—and economic—opportunity is appealing to Trump, particularly given his increasing focus on competition with China, which is making its own inroads on the continent.”

In Nairobi, the US backing of the Multinational Security Support mission (MSS) in Haiti which Kenya leads, guarantees on climate change as well as support for UN agencies, with multifaceted humanitarian roles in the region. Republicans had stalled approvals for US funding for Haiti.

Biden had pledged $300 million but had so far only delivered $100 million for the MSS with the rest still pending in Congress. The Trump victory also came with the House majority wins for Republicans, who will now control it for the next three years. They will be key in approving or rejecting any monies heading outside the country.

Trump, of course, has been critical of Biden’s funding of projects abroad while ignoring domestic issues.

Stalling funding for the MSS could cripple its intentions, and may force Kenya to delay further deployments which were due by January.

Biden had cancelled Trump’s trade deal with Kenya, and instead launched talks with Kenya for his own type. Those talks were still going on this year. But now those talks are unlikely to be completed before Biden exits. And Kenya is unlikely to sign any bilateral trade deal with the US government in the next one year, analysts have warned.

For Kenya, that also means a longer wait for a trade deal which looked likely from the first Trump years (2016-2020).

According to Trade experts, the coming into effect of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in 2021 and the likely renewal of the Agoa present a dilemma to the US-Kenya trade deal.

“They are looking at protecting and nurturing made-in-America and that means attention to enhancing the American market access opportunities which was a major achievement of President Bush Junior (George W. Bush), is increasingly going to the backseat,” said Dr Mukhisa Kituyi, former Secretary-General of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) and formerly Kenya’s Trade minister.

“And I see, regardless of who wins, that Africa is going to have diminished significance in economic and other international engagements of the next American governments.”

It means administration changes in the US have kept Kenya waiting for eight years for a trade deal. Biden’s shift from a Free Trade Area agreement (FTA) to a strategic trade and investment partnership (Stip) agreement, was a different perspective to Trump, which suggests the new leader will not continue with it.

Former Kenya Trade Principal Secretary Johnson Weru says Stip may just have died a natural death, both because it contradicts the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCTA) agreement and the World Trade Organisation (WTO), something peers in the region had warned.

“Kenya is likely to be caught up by international law. Because they (US) are supposed to give the developing countries trading preferences according to Article 24 of the WTO,” said Mr Weru.

“It grants preferences to developing countries first before you grant to third parties. Also while Trump sanctioned the FTA through Congress, Stip under Biden was not.”

According to the MFN rule, WTO members must apply the lowest tariffs that they apply to the products of any one country to the products of every other country.

However, WTO members can charge higher tariffs if they apply these nonreciprocal tariffs to all countries.

“I see Trump returning to the FTA that he initiated with President Uhuru Kenyatta in 2020,” said Mr Weru.

The US suspended Rwanda from Agoa in 2018 after Kigali banned second hand clothes from the US. That is likely to change.

As President Yoweri Museveni sent his message, the Trump presidency stands to be especially acute for LGBTQ+ Americans and is likely to benefit Uganda should Trump extend his displeasure at the LGBTQ’s activities beyond the US.

“I congratulate Trump upon his election as USA president. I look forward to working with him like I have done before with his predecessors,” said President Museveni in his X.

Last year, President Biden suspended Uganda from Agoa due to the enactment of Uganda’s Anti-Homosexuality Act (AHA), which he termed as “a tragic violation of universal human rights”.

The World Bank, which the US has great influence over its decisions, then suspended lending to Uganda over rights abuses.

Trump has vowed to pass a federal ban on gender-affirming care for minors and to redefine gender at the federal level, so that male and female (as assigned at birth) are the only recognised genders.

Trump’s platform also urged the adoption of national “Don’t Say Gay” policies targeting LGBTQ+ students in schools and promises to “keep men out of women’s sports.”

Greatest scam

As a senator, his running mate, J.D. Vance, last year introduced a bill threatening to jail doctors who treat trans youth patients.

On the campaign trail, Trump promised to repeal federal regulations on greenhouse-gas emissions, lambasted the Green New Deal as the “greatest scam in history,” and committed to boosting fossil-fuel production.

However, experts say his administration will need to consider the danger of these actions as the climate is global.

The Trump administration will find that it cannot overlook these concerns.

If the US steps back on its climate leadership, it will be difficult—if not impossible—to phase down fossil fuels and halt global warming, not just in the next four years but also for future US administrations.

Trump’s tenure is likely to build on some important existing initiatives, some of them launched by other Republican presidents that are currently benefiting Kenya and Tanzania.

Efforts such as those led by the Millennium Challenge Corporation and its compacts with African countries, as well as creative initiatives from the US International Development Finance Corporation are likely to continue under his administration.

For US companies working on the continent, one could expect a second Trump administration to streamline processes, rules, and regulations to make doing business easier—and faster—than in previous years. (NMG)