Africa’s cities expanding faster than they are planned, experts warn

“Many of our cities did not start with master plans,” he noted.

“They evolved, sometimes over decades or even centuries, as trading hubs or cultural centres. Planning and governance came later, often trying to catch up with growth that had already taken shape," he added.

Organic growth, delayed order

From coastal trade hubs such as Zanzibar, Mombasa and Dar es Salaam to inland administrative capitals like Dodoma, Mr Owegi said African cities typically expand outward before structured systems are put in place.

His recent visit to Dodoma highlighted this pattern.

Driving into the city, he observed vast stretches of newly built low-rise structures spreading across available land—evidence of rapid, largely uncoordinated growth.

“Everything is expanding, but not necessarily according to a coordinated plan,” he said, pointing to the absence of high-density development and the prevalence of land-driven sprawl.

Even purpose-built developments such as the government district in Dodoma, often referred to as Magufuli City, illustrate the challenge. While modern office buildings and ministries are rising quickly, complementary urban systems such as amenities, transport links and social infrastructure lag behind.

Reactive governance

According to Mr Owegi, this pattern reflects a deeper structural issue: urban governance in Africa is largely reactive rather than anticipatory.

“What we are doing in many cases is trying to impose order on systems that are already evolving organically,” he said. “We respond to problems after they appear instead of anticipating them," he added.

This reactive approach, he argued, explains why many cities struggle with persistent urban challenges.

Congestion, poor drainage systems, informal transport networks and mounting waste are not isolated failures but symptoms of planning that comes too late.

In cities across the region, informal transport modes such as minibuses, motorcycles and three-wheelers fill mobility gaps left by inadequate planning. While they provide essential services, they also highlight the absence of integrated transport systems.

Mr Owegi illustrated this with a simple but telling question: what happens to ageing vehicles like Bajajs and minibuses once they are no longer in use? The lack of clear systems for recycling or disposal, he said, mirrors broader gaps in urban planning.

“It may sound like a small issue, but it speaks to a bigger problem—cities produce not just assets, but also liabilities,” he explained.

Cities as engines and risks

Urban areas, Mr Owegi said, generate economic assets such as infrastructure, businesses and public services.

But they also produce liabilities, including pollution, congestion, waste and inequality.

The challenge for policymakers is managing both sides of this equation, something that becomes harder when growth outpaces planning.

“Urban governance is about managing assets and liabilities simultaneously,” he said.

“If we fail on either side, the system becomes unbalanced," he added.

The consequences are already visible in many African cities, where infrastructure struggles to keep pace with population growth driven by rural-to-urban migration. Capital cities and commercial hubs, in particular, act as magnets for young people seeking economic opportunities, intensifying pressure on housing, transport and services.

Financing the catch-up

Adding to the discussion, Zanzibar Presidential Delivery Bureau Chief Executive Officer Mohammed Khalfan said financing remains central to how quickly cities can respond to these pressures.

Prof Khalfan attributed much of Zanzibar’s recent infrastructure progress to innovative financing models, particularly public-private partnerships (PPPs), which have enabled the government to mobilise funding beyond traditional public resources.

“Public financing alone cannot meet infrastructure needs,” he said.

“We work with private investors who can build and finance projects, with the government repaying over time based on agreed terms.”

He said such partnerships have been instrumental in fast-tracking major developments, including transport infrastructure and urban housing, while also attracting both local and international investors.

However, he acknowledged that infrastructure expansion has not been without challenges.

“There are cases where the cost of compensating people can exceed the cost of constructing the road itself,” he said, highlighting the complexity of urban development in already built-up areas.

Other hurdles include limited space for expansion in densely populated settlements, ageing underground infrastructure and coordination gaps among utility providers. Climate-related risk, particularly flooding linked to inadequate drainage systems, also continue to expose weaknesses in urban planning.

Despite these challenges, the bureau says it has adopted a coordinated approach involving multiple stakeholders, including government agencies, investors and local communities, to ensure projects are delivered efficiently and sustainably.

The cost of playing catch-up

Mr Owegi warned that delayed planning is not just inefficient, it is expensive.

Fixing congestion, redesigning drainage systems or formalising informal settlements after they emerge costs significantly more than planning ahead.

In many cases, governments also face political resistance when attempting to introduce reforms, particularly where powerful economic interests benefit from the status quo.

“We often know the problems and even the solutions,” he said.

“The real constraints are financing and political will,” he added.

A call for anticipatory planning

To address the growing mismatch, Mr Owegi called for a shift towards anticipatory urban planning systems that predict and prepare for growth rather than react to it.

This includes integrating land use, transport, waste management and economic planning from the outset, as well as strengthening public financial management to ensure cities have the resources to act.

“Urban planning, governance and financing must anticipate future changes, not follow them,” he stressed.

He also urged policymakers and researchers to pay closer attention to the political economy of cities, understanding who holds power, who benefits from urban systems and who may resist change.

The future is urban

With Africa’s population increasingly concentrated in cities, the stakes are high.

Mr Owegi said the continent’s economic trajectory will largely be shaped by how well its urban areas are managed.

“The future of Africa will be shaped by cities,” he said.

 “But that future depends on whether we plan ahead or continue trying to fix problems after they appear,” he added.

For now, the warning is clear: without a shift from reactive to proactive planning, Africa’s cities may continue to grow, but not in ways that are sustainable, efficient or inclusive.