ATCL eyes break-even by 2027 as revenues jump and operations stabilise

“We are reviewing our projections, but most likely we do not expect to go beyond 2027 without breaking even,” he said, expressing confidence that ongoing reforms and revenue growth will narrow losses further in the coming years.

The positive outlook is underpinned by a sharp increase in revenues. Between the 2023/24 and 2024/25 financial years, ATCL recorded an increase of Sh143 billion, with projections indicating a further rise of more than Sh200 billion in the current financial year.

“When you look at our performance over the past three years, there is a consistent upward trend. This financial year, you will see even stronger results as the improvements we have made start to fully reflect in our numbers,” Mr Ulanga said

The airline’s improving financial outlook is closely linked to gains in operational performance, particularly in flight reliability.

“From the second quarter of last year, we recorded only two cancellations. After that, there were periods with no cancellations at all,” Mr Ulanga added.

ATCL has also introduced stricter monitoring systems for delays, tracking performance from the first minute a flight exceeds its scheduled departure time.

According to the CEO, about 90 percent of flights now depart within 30 minutes of schedule.

“When delays go beyond that, it is usually due to technical issues. And for us, safety comes first. If an aircraft has a problem, we fix it or replace it — we cannot compromise.”

Stronger revenues driven by cargo and international routes

A major driver of ATCL’s improving performance has been a strategic shift in its business model, particularly in cargo operations and international routes.

“In 2025, we reviewed our cargo operations and moved into charter services and that has brought significant returns,” Mr Ulanga said.

The airline has since expanded cargo services across regional and international markets, while also establishing a dedicated cargo department to actively source business.

“We are seeing strong demand on routes like China, where both passenger and cargo volumes are high. That is why we are planning to introduce dedicated cargo services to fully utilise that opportunity.”

At the same time, international routes are now contributing more revenue than domestic operations, Mr Ulanga said.

“In the second and third quarters of this financial year, international routes have contributed more revenue than domestic routes. That is a big shift for us.”

Demand has been particularly strong on routes such as Mumbai and China, with flights operating at high capacity. The airline plans to introduce daily flights to Mumbai from June and expand frequencies on other routes.

Despite the strong revenue performance, ATCL’s financial statements continue to reflect losses — a situation Mr Ulanga attributes to the airline’s financing structure.

Aircraft are procured by the Tanzania Government Flight Agency (TGFA) and leased to ATCL, with the lease obligations recorded as liabilities.

“These are accounting losses. As we expand the fleet, those obligations increase and that is what appears in the books. But operationally, we are able to sustain ourselves. We pay salaries, fuel and other running costs using our own revenues,” Mr Ulanga said.

Expansion plans and long-term vision

ATCL currently operates 32 destinations — 15 domestic and 17 international — and is preparing to expand further, including new routes such as Seychelles.

The airline is also exploring plans to establish a dedicated terminal in collaboration with the Tanzania Airports Authority, aimed at enhancing customer experience and strengthening its brand. “We want to become a Pan-African operator, expand our footprint and contribute more to the economy,” The ATCL chief said.

He added that upcoming opportunities such as the Africa Cup of Nations 2027 will be leveraged to boost visibility and passenger traffic.

Audit highlights challenges amid progress

Even as the airline reports improving performance, a recent audit by the Controller and Auditor General underscores the scale of the challenges it continues to face.

According to the 2024/25 report presented by Controller and Auditor General Charles Kichere to President Samia Suluhu Hassan on March 30, ATCL’s accumulated debt had reached approximately Sh748 billion by June 2025.

In the 2024/25 financial year alone, the airline posted a loss of Sh191.19 billion — a 108 percent increase — bringing total accumulated losses to over Sh700 billion.

The report attributes the losses to rising operating costs, which increased by Sh134 billion to Sh675 billion, outpacing revenue growth.

It also highlights operational gaps, including an average passenger load factor of 55 percent across several routes, inefficiencies in cargo utilisation and weaknesses in internal controls, including losses through ticketing agents.

Despite these challenges, Mr Kichere expressed confidence in the airline’s future, noting that it has the potential to become profitable if key reforms are implemented.

Momentum building toward recovery

Mr Ulanga said ATCL had initially targeted to break even by 2023, but this was delayed by disruptions linked to the COVID-19 pandemic and technical issues affecting aircraft.

By August 2025, all aircraft had returned to service, allowing the airline to focus fully on growth.

The ongoing tensions in the Middle East forced ATCL to reroute its stopover to India, but this has brought an unexpected passenger surge. Flights to Mumbai and China are consistently full. From June this year, ATCL will operate daily services to Mumbai and is studying daily frequencies to China.

The airline is in talks with airport authorities for a dedicated Air Tanzania terminal to offer customised services similar to other major international carriers.

 It also plans special liveries and targeted promotions on its aircraft for the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON), using the tournament to market Tanzania, especially in football-loving destinations.

Mr Ulanga said the airline’s long-term vision is to become a true Pan-African operator with greater economic impact across the continent.