Tanzania elections: It’s a big week ahead for CCM, Chadema

Dar es Salaam. Tanzania’s two main political parties are set to carry out major in-house preparatory exercises over the next few days as they look to refine plans to win this year's general election in October. 

The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) is going for an extraordinary general congress on January 19 to pick a new vice-chairperson for Tanzania Mainland, who will be President Samia Suluhu Hassan's righthand person within the party as it seeks to extend its dominance over domestic politics for another five years.

The position has been vacant since July 2024, when veteran stalwart Abdulrahman Kinana, who spearheaded the election campaigns of Samia's two immediate predecessors, abruptly resigned.

And on January 21, opposition party Chadema will hold its own top leadership election to conclude a power struggle between incumbent party boss Freeman Mbowe and his maverick deputy Tundu Lissu, which is already threatening to split the party long before the October race.

The contest has dominated political discourse nationwide for more than a month, and no matter who comes out on top, its outcome is likely to have far-reaching implications for Chadema's future and its standing as the bastion of opposition aspirations to eventually end CCM's age-old political monopoly.

Mbowe, 63, a moderate politician, has led the party for 20 years straight since 2004, seeing it blossom from a fledgling outfit into a political force to reckon with. 

But, in recent years he has also faced criticism for “clinging” on to the top seat and “compromising” Chadema's initial hardline stance on democratic reforms in favour of a softer approach based on a bid to negotiate a deal with CCM.  

The 56-year-old Lissu is known for his more militant attitude and he has made it clear that if he becomes boss, he will steer the party back to demanding reforms, including the passing of a new constitution before the October election. 

Based on the gist of public exchanges between supporters of the two camps that have become increasingly heated as the D-Day approaches, the bone of contention appears to be who of the two is better suited to prevent a repeat of CCM's brazen manipulation of last year's nationwide grassroots elections in the October exercise.

So, will it be the cool-headed Mbowe, who appears to have the backing of most of Chadema's current crop of zonal and regional leaders, or the fiery Lissu, who has a stronger support base among the party's younger cadres and diaspora members? 

The CCM establishment will be watching with avid attention, given the duo's differing temperaments and the type of influence that the winner could have on the upcoming race for the presidency and parliamentary representation.

But, before that, there is the not-so-small matter of endorsing the man (or woman) who will assume the dual roles of pacifier in a ruling party, which tends to become beset by factional rivalries during election time, and President Samia's chief campaign manager in her bid to defend her incumbency.

Kinana held the position from April 2022, having been handpicked by Samia as CCM chairperson, and was held in high esteem across the party's ranks right up to the time he quit.

The choice of his successor is again in the president's hands, and she has taken her time, given that it will have to be someone not only with a similar level of clout within the party, but also trustworthy enough to actively help her maintain firm control over potentially divisive elements.   

Several names of possible candidates have been bandied around during the week leading up to Sunday's expected announcement, with former prime minister Mizengo Pinda, a current member of CCM's Central Committee (the party's topmost decision-making organ), emerging as the odds-on favourite among most pundits so far.