War rarely surprises. It announces itself in warnings ignored, signals dismissed, and choices deferred. The latest confrontation between Israel, the US, and Iran is no exception. It is a collision long in the making. And by the time the first aircraft crossed into Iranian airspace, the outcome had already been determined.
For years, the military balance had been shifting decisively against Tehran. Israeli strikes in 2024 degraded its air defence systems, opening corridors that have proven fatal. American carrier strike groups have been repositioned across the Gulf.
