Prime
National Development Vision 2050 and Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill was a British military leader and statesman. Twice named prime minister of Great Britain, he helped to defeat Nazi Germany in World War II. PHOTO | GETTY IMAGES
What you need to know:
- Tanzania clearly stands at a crucial point in its development path. Although economic growth has been good in recent decades, future growth levels must be much more ambitious if we are to meet aspired future per capita income levels, and at the same time such growth needs to be inclusive. The role of the private sector in achieving this ambition is key.
“Continuous effort—not strength or intelligence—is the key to unlocking our potential” is a Winston Churchill quote. Simply put, you cannot be complacent just because of natural endowments as on their own these are not sufficient. This quote is particularly pertinent to Tanzania, whose natural endowments though unrivalled are unrealised to their full potential.
“2050…Let’s Go! Gearing Up for a Prosperous, Inclusive, and Resilient Economy” was the theme of the 2024 annual gala dinner of CEO Roundtable of Tanzania held on November 30, 2024 and graced by the presence of His Excellency Vice President
Dr Philip Mpango as guest of honour. Tanzania’s National Development Vision (NDV) 2050 can be the platform to help drive the change to actualise our full potential.
Global economic and political trends are important considerations for NDV 2050.
One insight into such trends is “Megatrends”, a 2022 publication from PwC (refreshing an earlier 2012 version), which listed the following “Big Five” as the key global trends: Climate Change; Technological Disruption; Demographic Shifts; Fracturing World; Social Instability.
Climate change is particularly topical. In his speech at COP 29, Vice President Dr Mpango noted that climate change drains Tanzania’s economy by an estimated two to three percent of its GDP annually, representing billions in lost potential. Climate change is certainly a top of mind business issue; indeed, a recent edition of The Economist magazine listed ten business trends for 2025 of which five related to environmental issues.
Demographic developments also present challenges and opportunities. To get granular on this: in 2000, at the start of the current Tanzania Development Vision (TDV) 2025, Tanzania’s population numbered 34.26 million of which 7.64 million (22.3 percent) were urbanised, and by 2025 and 2050 is projected to be 70.55 million and 129.62 million respectively of which 28.24 million (40 percent) and 76.54 million (59.1 percent) respectively will be urbanised. So, whilst the 50 years to 2050 will see the overall population almost quadruple, the urban population will grow by a factor of 10!
Tanzania clearly stands at a crucial point in its development path. Although economic growth has been good in recent decades, future growth levels must be much more ambitious if we are to meet aspired future per capita income levels, and at the same time such growth needs to be inclusive. The role of the private sector in achieving this ambition is key.
“Privatising Growth” was the theme of a Tanzania Country Economic Memorandum published by the World Bank in December 2023. It noted that whilst growth has been robust over the past two decades, its drivers changed in the early 2010s - in particular with an increasing dependence on public investment in infrastructure, a slowdown in structural transformation, and a diminishing role for exports. Priorities it highlighted as enablers for a growth pattern that is more balanced, faster, and more inclusive included: accelerating business climate reforms; boosting inclusion and resilience: enhancing productivity and resilience in agriculture; building Tanzania’s tourism back better; and reducing trade costs and leveraging regional integration.
So how should we re-imagine Tanzania in 2050? Effective delivery of education and health are clearly key foundations for this burgeoning population. Equally, the effective provision of infrastructure development and service delivery will be key - and the ever-increasing demands in this regard can only be achieved if private sector expertise and investment is effectively leveraged to unlock new sources of capital and innovation. Supportive policies can help ensure effective digital and financial inclusion enabling the growth of small businesses and rural communities.
A supportive business climate can encourage greater formalisation and also help us realise our economic potential across a host of sectors. But how? Perhaps we can take a leaf from the slogan “Minimum Government, Maximum Governance”, the slogan of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi when he first assumed office, with the aim to cut red tape, streamline bureaucracy and enhance governance effectiveness including by simplification of laws. We certainly need a predictable and simpler regulatory and fiscal framework, and key to this is even more effective interaction and dialogue between Government and private sector, including on policy formulation.
Challenges also bring opportunities. For example, climate change is not just a threat to manage but also an opportunity to leverage including: critical (“green”) minerals (and in the interim LNG as a transition fuel); our unique position in terms of access to water; an energy supply chain that is very green (hydro, as well as potential new geothermal, solar and wind projects); access to green finance. To quote Churchill once more: “The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees opportunity in every difficulty”.
The last three decades have seen strong growth, but we must take this to an even higher level. The opportunity is there and NDV 2050 will chart the course.
