Nairobi. East Africa is entering a new phase of petroleum infrastructure development as countries push to build refineries, pipelines, storage facilities and ports to capture more of the region’s fuel trade.
Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda are building competing petroleum hubs with Rwanda also considering an investment in Lamu.
The emerging network could reshape who controls the infrastructure connecting East Africa’s oil and fuel markets.
According to The EastAfrican, President Paul Kagame is the latest to hint that Kigali has discussed taking a stake in Dangote’s proposed refinery, although the talks remain at “an early stage.”
“What I can say is that Rwanda would be very happy to be part of that kind of investment,” Kagame said.
Kagame said it was too early to discuss the details because the discussions were still a “work in progress”, according to The EastAfrican.
Rwanda’s interest would give the landlocked country a potential equity position in a coastal refinery designed to serve a wider regional market.
Dangote has offered East African governments a combined 30% stake in the proposed Lamu refinery, according to reports. Kenya is considering taking a 10% stake valued at about US$500 million, while Rwanda and Ethiopia have also been invited to participate.
The Lamu project is emerging as Uganda and Tanzania build another petroleum system around Tanga.
Uganda and Tanzania signed an agreement with Vitol Bahrain in August to develop the Tanga Regional Energy Hub, combining refining, storage, logistics, trading and distribution.
The proposed hub is estimated at more than US$20 billion and would build on the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), which is designed to move Uganda’s crude to the Tanzanian coast.
EACOP runs 1,443 kilometres from Uganda’s oil-producing region to the Chongoleani Peninsula near Tanga Port. It is designed to transport about 230,000 barrels of Uganda’s waxy crude per day.
That gives Tanga a direct link to Uganda’s upstream oil industry. The proposed hub would add refining, storage and distribution capacity around the pipeline’s coastal endpoint.
Uganda is also developing the 60,000-barrel-per-day Hoima refinery. Tanga would provide the coastal infrastructure around the crude route, while Hoima would provide domestic processing capacity.
Vitol, one of the world’s largest independent energy traders, is partnering with Uganda’s national oil company and Tanzania’s petroleum development corporation on the Tanga project.
The scale of Tanzania’s existing fuel trade gives the hub a ready regional market. Between July 2024 and March 2025, Tanzania imported 6.74 billion litres of petroleum products, up 7.3% from a year earlier, according to the government.
According to Faustine Kimath, an ICT and business consultant, 52% of those imports were destined for neighbouring countries.
That means more than half of the petroleum moving through Tanzania’s import system was already serving markets beyond its borders.
He said the commercial advantage would come from connecting energy infrastructure with logistics, manufacturing, finance, technology and regional trade.
Kenya is pursuing a larger-scale downstream play at Lamu.
Dangote plans a refinery with capacity of about 700,000 barrels per day, according to plans reported in July. That would be more than 11 times the planned capacity of Uganda’s Hoima refinery.
The refinery is estimated at about $16 billion, while the wider refinery and port complex has been put at close to $20 billion in recent reports.
Kenya President William Ruto said Dangote would begin investing in the Lamu project this September, according to The EastAfrican, subject to the required approvals.At that scale, crude supply becomes a central commercial question.
Reuters reported last week that about 30% to 40% of the crude processed by Dangote’s Nigerian refinery has been imported because domestic crude has proved more expensive or difficult to secure.
The Lamu refinery would therefore need to secure reliable feedstock as well as build the infrastructure needed to receive, store and distribute the finished products.
East Africa has crude resources in Uganda, South Sudan and Kenya. David Ndii, an economic adviser to Kenya's President WIlliam Ruto, has estimated potential regional crude production at more than 600,000 barrels per day from the three countries.The proposed refinery is also being built around a market that stretches well beyond Kenya.
Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, Burundi, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo depend to varying degrees on imported petroleum products. Their demand creates a market for coastal terminals, storage facilities, pipelines, trucking and other distribution infrastructure.
Tanga and Lamu are developing from different starting points.
Tanga is anchored by Uganda’s crude production and EACOP. Lamu is being developed as a large downstream refinery and port investment linked to the LAPSSET corridor and designed to serve markets beyond Kenya.
Uganda and Tanzania are presenting Hoima and Tanga as complementary parts of the same downstream system.
Tanzania’s Petroleum Development Corporation has said the proposed Tanga facility would complement the 60,000-barrel-per-day Hoima refinery, with a planned bidirectional pipeline allowing refined products to move according to market demand.
Feasibility and front-end engineering design studies for the refined-products pipeline and storage terminal are expected later this year.
Lesley Wamere, a strategist and chemical engineer focused on energy and infrastructure, sees scope for the same approach between Tanga and Lamu.
“The primary strategic leverage lies in the project's commercial structure,” Wamere said.
She argues that Tanga and Lamu could operate as complementary coastal anchors, with Tanga handling crude flows arriving through EACOP and Lamu operating as a larger downstream processing and industrial platform.
“Rather than treating the proposed Tanga processing project and the Lamu complex as rival developments competing for the same crude, regional policy must align them as complementary anchors,” Wamere said.
One option she proposes is a coastal tanker connection between Tanga and Lamu, allowing crude or petroleum products to move between the two systems.
Wamere also identifies Kenya’s South Lokichar basin as a potential future crude source for the LAPSSET corridor, although commercial development of the fields and the required connecting infrastructure are not yet established as part of the Lamu refinery project.
Her argument extends beyond refinery capacity to the infrastructure around it. “Controlling the corridor is what controls the price,” Wamere said, pointing to storage, shipping, pipelines, financing and distribution as parts of the wider energy system.
Tanzania’s dependence on imported fuel illustrates the scale of the opportunity. The government said earlier this year that the country imports 100 percent of its petroleum products, with about 61 percent coming from the Middle East through the Strait of Hormuz and roughly 40 percent from India.
A Tanga hub would put more refining, storage and trading capacity closer to the regional markets already supplied through Tanzania.
Lamu is being developed around a different corridor. The port sits within LAPSSET, which connects Kenya’s northern coast with South Sudan and Ethiopia, giving the proposed refinery access to transport and trade infrastructure serving several countries.
Rwanda’s interest adds another layer. Kigali has no coastline, but its potential investment in Lamu would give it a direct financial position in infrastructure serving the regional petroleum market.
